We are onto the Sunday slate of the Divisional Round with two more games for us to consume.
All eyes will be on the night game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, but don't look past the early game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions with a spot in the NFC Championship on the line.
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Best NFL Playoff Bets for Sunday, January 21st Action
- Buccaneers (+6) vs. Lions
- Josh Reynolds Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Chiefs (+2.5) vs. Bills
- James Cook OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction and Pick
Our Iain MacMillan is riding with the Bucs on Divisional Round Sunday in a familiar spot as an underdog. Here's what he had to say in his weekly Road to 272 column:
The best team in the NFL as an underdog this season?
You guessed it, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After winning outright as an underdog on Wild Card Weekend, Tampa Bay is now 9-3 against the spread as a dog this season.
While the Lions have been dominant at home – 7-2 straight up – this is a lot of points to give Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, who showed that they can really move the ball against a weak pass defense in the game against Philly.
Well, they’re in luck, because the Lions ranked 30th in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed this season.
Detroit may end up winning, but the team didn’t cover as a favorite last week. Give me the Bucs, who are getting nearly a touchdown on Sunday.
PICK: Buccaneers +6
Best Detroit Lions Player Props
As part of his anytime touchdown scorer preview, MacMillan noted that Josh Reynolds is a strong bet to find the end zone after seeing a ton of usage on Wild Card weekend:
Instead of betting on Amon-Ra St. Brown at similar odds to Montgomery, consider betting on the Lions' No. 2 wideout, Josh Reynold at a much better price.
Reynolds had only two fewer targets and receptions than St. Brown last week and his production skyrocketed in the final stretch of the season. He played a season-high 88% of snaps in Week 17 and 86% of snaps against the Rams last week. He has become the clear No. 2 target at wideout for the Lions, which means he presents plenty of value at his current price tag to find the end zone against the Buccaneers on Sunday.
PICK: Josh Reynolds Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+250)
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction and Pick
MacMillan isn't missing out on a chance to bet the Kansas City Chiefs as underdogs with Patrick Mahomes under center.
I love the Bills and I'll be rooting for them in this game, but I refuse to fall for the trap of betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, especially in the playoffs. The Chiefs outranked the Bills in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.8, and also had the fifth best road Net Yards per Play at +0.5.
We can even look at their Week 14 loss to the Bills and despite losing the game, 20-17, the Chiefs outgained them 5.6 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play. Josh Allen struggled in that game, completing just 23-of-42 passes for 4.6 yards per throw. That's because of the Chiefs secondary, which is one of the best in the NFL, allowing just 5.4 yards per throw this season while ranking third in opponent dropback EPA and second in opponent dropback success rate.
The key for the Bills winning this game is to run the football early and often. Based on their gameplan against them earlier this season, I'm not confident they'll do that.
Then there's the immeasurables. The Chiefs have been here, albeit not on the road, plenty of times in the past few seasons. Nobody has had more success in high-pressure playoff situations than the Chiefs since Mahomes took over as their quarterback.
You also have to be concerned by the Bills defense, which just allowed the Steelers to gain 324 yards of total offense against them. If they play that poorly against the Chiefs, their season is over.
PICK: Chiefs +2.5
Best Buffalo Bills Player Props
The path to success for the Bills is by running the football. The weakness of this Chiefs team is their run defense, ranking 23rd in opponent yards per carry, 28th in opponent rush EPA, and 17th in opponent rush success rate.
The last time these two teams played, James Cook averaged 5.8 yards per carry. If he can produce at that rate again on Sunday, he's going to soar over this total and put the Bills in a great spot to win.
PICK: James Cook OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.