Top NFL Picks and Predictions Today (Best Spread, Total, and Prop Bets for Week 1)

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals / Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rise and shine, the NFL is BACK!

It's time so sit back, relax, and watch nonstop football for the next seven hours. Then, take a quick break. Have some food, maybe a nap. Then, strap back in for Sunday Night Football.

If you're looking for some plays for today, I have you covered. Here, I'll break down my favorite spread, total, and prop bet for today's action.

NFL Week 1 Best Bets

Cardinals +6.5 (-114) vs. Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is at the forefront of people's minds when they think about the Chiefs. But, they somehow forget just how bad this Kansas City defense was in 2021.

The Chiefs ranked 28th in opponent yards per play in 2021, 30th in opponent yards per carry, 22nd in third down defense, and 31st in sack percentage. Those aren't exactly the numbers of a team that I'd be willing to lay 6.5-points with on the road in a Week 1 matchup against a playoff team.

That goes without saying they'll have to try to move on without Tyreek Hill in their offense this year. We may see some significant growing pains after the departure of their star wideout.

The Cardinals seems to start hot every season, and I'm banking on that being the case again today.

Patriots vs. Dolphins UNDER 46.5 (-115)

My favorite total in Week 1 is the UNDER between the Patriots and Dolphins.

Mac Jones looked awful in preseason, and it could be a result of New England losing their offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, to the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason. Now, they have two defensive guys, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, set as the co-offensive coordinators. What could possibly go wrong?

If Bill Belichick was smart, and I think he is, he’s going to stick to a "run-the-ball" offensive gameplan in an attempt to find some sort of rhythm on offense.

Also, let's not forget that the Dolphins offense ranked 29th in yards per play last year. Sure, they signed Tyreek Hill, but I'm not sold on how much of an immediate impact he'll make.

Finally, let’s also consider they’re going up against the third best scoring defense from last season. The Patriots allowed an average of just 19.4 points per game.

Dalvin Cook OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-116)

Dalvin Cook starts his 2022 campaign with a favorable matchup against the Green Bay Packers. Everyone talks about how good of a defense the Packers have, but let's not forget that they finished 28th in opponent yards per carry last season, allowing an average of 4.6 yards per rush.

Meanwhile, Cook averaged 89.2 rushing yards per game in 2021, and his Week 1 total is 18 yards below that, with the 27-year old taking on one of the worst rushing defenses from 2021.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.