Top NHL Picks and Predictions for Today: Day of the (Under)Dogs
We're officially in the final stretch of the NHL season. Playoff teams in the Eastern Conference are jockeying for seeding, while the playoff race in the West starts to heat up.
Just because today is the NHL Trade Deadline, doesn't mean that we don't have games to bet on. Here are my top three bets for tonight's action.
All odds listed are via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Bruins vs. Canadiens Prediction and Pick
There's no way in hell I can be convinced to bet on the Canadiens at any point for the rest of the season, but the Bruins are too favored to provide any betting value, so I'm obligated to look at the total in this game.
Even though this game is a mismatch, the UNDER 6 goals is the way to go. The Bruins have been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL this season, ranking third in high danger scoring chances against and second in expected goals against over their each team's last 25 games.
On the flip side of things, they've been average at best offensively, ranking 16th in expected goals for per 60 minutes and 24th in high danger scoring chances over the same stretch. The Canadiens aren't good offensively or defensively, so I don't expect them to find the back of the net often tonight.
Pick: UNDER 6 (-110)
Golden Knights vs. Wild Prediction and Pick
The OVER has been hitting at a high rate for both teams as of late, which makes it a great time to fade the trend and take the UNDER.
Despite the OVER hitting at a high rate, there are some signs that we'll see some regression. The Wild rank 25th in expected goals for per 60 minutes over their last 25 games at just 2.68. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights rank second last in the league in shooting percentage over that same stretch, finding the back of the net on only 7.9 percent of shots on goal.
The Wild have also been strong in their own end, ranking first in high danger scoring chances against dating back 25 games.
Fade the trend, take the UNDER.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-115)
Oilers vs. Avalanche Prediction and Pick
There's no doubt that the Avalanche are the best team in the NHL, but I firmly believe they're being overvalued in the betting market.
Over their last 25 games, the Oilers rank higher than the Avalanche in CORSI percentage, expected goals for, and expected goals against. They rank sixth, second, and eighth in those statistics, while the Avs rank ninth, fourth and 17th in those same categories, respectively.
The Avalanche have also struggled at times to find the back of the net in recent weeks, ranking 21st in shooting percentage over their last 25 games.
If you're looking for an underdog bet, the Oilers present the best value on the board tonight.
Pick: Oilers +180
Iain is 50-44-2 (+3.96 units) with his NHL picks in 2022. Check out his detailed record here.