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Top NHL Picks and Predictions Today (Best Bets for Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 1 Stanley Cup Final)

By Iain MacMillan

The Avalanche and Lightning will face-off in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday night.
The Avalanche and Lightning will face-off in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday night. / Mike Carlson/GettyImages
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It's time for the puck to drop at the Stanley Cup Final.

The Colorado Avalanche are looking for their first Cup win since 2001, while the Lightning aim for the coveted three-peat, which hasn't been achieved since the Islanders won four-straight in the early 1980's.

As always, I have bets locked in for Game 1 tonight. WynnBET has the Avalanche set at -160 favorites, so I'm going to give out my pick to win the game, as well as two prop bets to sprinkle on.

Best Bets for Lightning vs. Avalanche Game 1

  • Lightning +140
  • Darcy Keumper OVER 27.5 Saves (-120)
  • Ondrej Palat OVER 0.5 Points (-125)

Lightning +140

It's interesting to note that in both of the regular season meetings between these teams, the home team was listed as the -115 favorite. If that's the case, why do the Avalanche deserve being -165 favorites this time around? Especially considering their team save percentage is below .900 in the playoffs, and they're missing one of their key players in Nazem Kadri.

I'll be on the Lightning to win this series, and I'm on them to take home the win in Game 1. Not only do they have the experience advantage, but you can't argue how much tougher their road to the Final has been. The Avalanche, while disposing their opponents with ease, haven't had to face a tough team all playoffs. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay fought through the Maple Leafs, the Presidents Trophy winning Panthers, and the Rangers, who boasted the best goaltender in the NHL.

The Lightning are being severely undervalued this series, and if I'm wrong, I'm willing to go down with the ship.

Darcy Kuemper OVER 27.5 Saves (-120)

The two regular season meetings between these teams resulted in Kuemper racking up 32 saves in one game, and 36 saves in the other. That's well above the set total for tonight of 27.5.

Add that to the fact that the Lightning are averaging 31.38 shots on goals per 60 minutes in the postseason, and that makes this a fantastic prop bet to make.

Ondrej Palat OVER 0.5 Points (-125)

Ondrej Palat is second on the Lightning in points this postseason, behind only Nikita Kucherov. That's right, he has more points than Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman. Even though that's the case, Palat has much shorter odds than those three players.

When it comes to point props, betting on the lesser known player on a line of all-stars is always a decent strategy. If Kucherov and/or Stamkos record a point, there's a solid chance that Palat gets in on the action.

Palat has seven points in the Lightning's last four games. I'll take him to get at least one more tonight.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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