Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Expect goals in Penguins vs. Lightning)

Nov 28, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Kris Letang (58) waits for a
Nov 28, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Kris Letang (58) waits for a / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

It's been a rollercoaster of a week betting on the NHL. I sweep the board one night, then get reverse-swept the next. A 4-0 night on Tuesday was followed up with an 0-3 night on Wednesday.

The good news is, if that pattern keeps up, we should have a great night tonight! I have four bets locked in tonight's action, so let's dive into it.

Season-to-date record: 58-49-1 (+2.00 units)

If you want to get in on the action with me tonight, you should place your bets at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins.

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Best NHL Bets Today

  • Panthers -1.5 (+115) vs. Canadiens
  • Penguins vs. Lightning OVER 6.5 (-112)
  • Stars -125 vs. Flames
  • Golden Knights vs. Canucks UNDER 6.5 (-120)

Panthers vs. Canadiens prediction

This is a big time fade of the Montreal Canadiens more than anything else. Over their last 10 games, they're second last in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goal differential next to only the San Jose Sharks. They're also fourth last in CORSI% over that stretch.

To make matters worse, Cayden Primeau is getting the start between the pipes tonight. He has a 3.41 goals against average and an .898 save percentage in his four starts this season.

I'll back the Panthers to win big tonight.

Pick: Panthers -1.5 (+115)

Penguins vs. Lightning prediction

I think there's a chance the Penguins are about to go on a run of cashing OVER bets. They're second in the NHL this season in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes at 3.1, and the Lightning aren't far behind in that stat, coming in at ninth at 2.73.

Tristan Jarry has been strong in net for them this year, but he's allowed at least three goals in four of his last six starts so we may be seeing some regression from him. Meanwhile Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled in his first two starts since returning from injury, sporting an .891 save percentage in those games.

Give me the OVER.

Pick: OVER 6.5 (-112)

Stars vs. Flames prediction

I love the Dallas Stars this season. They're fifth in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goal differential per 60 minutes and they've been a great shooting team this season too, coming in at eighth in shooting percentage, finding the back of the net on 11.04% of shots.

The Flames find themselves in the same position they were last year, playing well between the blue lines but can't find the back of the net and can't get any level of consistency with their goaltenders. They're 27th in shooting percentage and 25th in save percentage. That's not going to get it done against a team as good as the Stars.

Pick: Stars -125

Golden Knights vs. Canucks prediction

The goalies have yet to be announced for this game, but if we assume it's going to be Adin Hill and Thatcher Demko, then we just need to bet the UNDER based solely on the goaltenders. Amongst goalies who have played at least 10 games this season, they're first and third in save percentage. Hill has a save percentage of .933 and Demko comes in at .928.

As long as the total stays at 6.5, let's take the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-120)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!