Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Expect plenty of goals in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs)

Nov 6, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brayden Point (21) and Toronto Maple
Nov 6, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brayden Point (21) and Toronto Maple / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Tonight's slate of NHL games may not be a big one, but it was a handful of exciting and intriguing matchups. One of them is an Atlantic Division showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning. Another is a Western Conference showdown between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars.

I have a pick locked in for both of those games as well as one for the Metropolitan Division battle between the New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders. Let's jump into it.

If you want to bet on tonight's games, be sure to do so at FanDuel Sportsbook. For a limited time, new users who sign up for an account using the link below will receive $200 in bonus bets if they win their first $5 wager!

NHL Best Bets Today

  • Devils +160 vs. Rangers
  • Lightning vs. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 (-110)
  • Oilers +100 vs. Stars

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction

No team has scored more goals per 60 minutes over each team's last 25 games than the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have averaged 4.0 goals over that stretch. A big part of that is Auston Matthews, who is still chasing the possibility of being the first player to reach 70 goals in a single season since the early 90s. He needs eight goals in their last eight games to pull it off.

The Lightning have also been scoring at a high rate, averaging 3.49 goals per 60 minutes over that stretch, which ranks seventh in the NHL. These two teams are also second and third in the league in shooting percentage over each team's last 25 games.

That makes the OVER tonight a no-brainer of a bet.

Devils vs. Rangers prediction

I think the Devils are in a great upset spot tonight as the Rangers may be the most fraudulent team in the NHL over the past two months. Despite being 19-5-1 over their last 25 games, the Rangers are just 20th in expected goal percentage over that stretch. In those games, they lead the NHL in PDO which measures a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage. That makes them a huge regression candidate heading into the final stretch of the season.

The Devils have had plenty of struggles of their own, but the Rangers are being completely overpriced in the betting market as a team that is not playing nearly as good as their recent record may indicate.

Oilers vs. Stars prediction

If you look at the advanced metrics, these game should be a toss up based on how they're both playing. But, when two teams are close to each other in the advanced numbers, let's allow the actual numbers to be the deciding factor and those favor the Oilers.

The Stars are scoring 0.03 fewer goals than expected per 60 minutes of play while the Oilers are scoring 0.44 more goals then expected. The Oilers are also allowing 0.5 fewer goals than expected while the Stars are allowing 0..26 more goals than expected.

That's enough for me to back the Oilers as slight underdogs in Dallas.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!