We found some momentum on Monday night, cashing both bets on the Oilers and the Avalanche.
Let's carry that mojo into tonight's games, which is a strong one with some high level games. For the first time this season, I'm going to be dabbling in some player props.
Before I dive into them, I recommend signing up for an account at DraftKings Sportsbook. For a limited time, if you click the link below to sign up for an account you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager!
Best NHL Picks for Today
- Jake Guentzel OVER 3.5 shots on goal (+130)
- Lightning -135 vs. Blues
- Tyler Toffoli UNDER 3.5 shots on goal (-140)
Jake Guentzel OVER 3.5 shots on goal (+130)
Jake Guentzel is averaging 3.5 shots on goal per game this season, which is right where his total sits at for the Penguins game against the Blue Jackets. Luckily for him, and for us betting on him, he and the Penguins get to take on a Blue Jackets team that's allowing 32.8 shots on goal per game, which is the fifth highest mark in the NHL.
Guentzel is a beneficiary of playing on the top line alongside Sidney Crosby, and I think he'll get off his fair share of shots tonight.
Lightning -135 vs. Blues
The St. Louis Blues are 7-5-1 this season but I'm going to be fading them for the foreseeable future because I truly believe they aren't as good as their record indicates. They have an expected goal differential of -0.21 but an actual goals differential of +0.07. Usually, these two numbers get closer together as the season goes on which means the Blues are due for some regression.
This St. Louis team also ranks third last in the NHL in CORSI%, with only the Blackhawks and Sharks ranking worse. I'll back the Lightning to get the better of them tonight as road favorites.
Tyler Toffoli UNDER 3.5 shots on goal (-140)
We're going to use a similar strategy that I'm using for the Guentzel prop bet, but do the opposite. Tyler Toffoli and the New Jersey Devils will hit the road to take on the Winnipeg Jets, who have been the best defense in the NHL this season.
The Jets are allowing just 27.21 shots on goal per game this season, the fourth fewest in the NHL.
Toffoli has gone over this number in three-straight starts but with him being on the second line, he's only averaging 17:13 time on ice per game and he's played less than that in three of his last four games.
I think the Jets will keep him in check tonight.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!