Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Islanders in Great Spot vs. Wild)
The NHL action continues on MLK Day with a loaded slate of NHL games, starting at noon Eastern.
If you're looking for plays to back for today's slate, you've come to the right place. I have three plays on today's slate, including one on an afternoon showdown between the New Jersey Devils and Boston Bruins.
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Best NHL Bets Today
- Devils +143 vs. Bruins
- Islanders -102 vs. Wild
- Flyers vs. Blues UNDER 6 (-105)
Devils vs. Bruins prediction
The Bruins lead the Eastern Conference, but they could be a regression candidate in the coming weeks. When you look at adjusted 5-on-5 numbers over their last 25 games, the Bruins are just 21st in the NHL in expected goal percentage at 48.91%. Their strong shooting and goaltending have led them to where they are, but winning games based on that isn't sustainable.
Now, they're home favorites to a Devils team that's the complete opposite. They have great advanced metrics, like seventh in expected goal percentage over their last 25 games, but their goaltending has ruined them this season. Vitek Vanecek is expected to thankfully ride the bench again and Nico Daws is likely to get the start. He's coming off a strong 37 save performance and has a .917 save percentage on the season.
Any team that's as significantly better in advanced metrics like the Devils are in this matchup, don't deserve to be this big of an underdog. I'll take a shot on New Jersey to pull off the upset.
Islanders vs. Wild prediction
Keep an eye on the Islanders powerplay unit tonight. It's been a big reason for their success this season, sporting a top 10 unit in that area, and now they get to face a Wild team that has one of the worst penalty kills in the NHL. Only the Senators and Sharks have a worse penalty kill than the Wild this season.
The Wild's offense has been abysmal this season as well, ranking 29th in adjusted 5-on-5 play in expected goals for per 60 minutes. Meanwhile, the Islanders have the ability to find the back of the net at a high rate, sporting the fourth best shooting percentage over their last 25 games.
I'll back the Islanders in a game where I feel they have a stylistic advantage.
Flyers vs. Blues prediction
No team has been worse in the shooting department than the Philadelphia Flyers over their last 25 games. In that span, they're dead last in the NHL in shooting percentage at 7.12%. The Blues also haven't been a great shooting team, ranking 19th in shooting percentage over that same time frame.
In a battle between two terrible shooting teams, I won't hesitate to take the UNDER.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!