Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Tonight (Kraken Will Upset Senators)

Nov 30, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Seattle Kracken forward Jared McCann (19) gets congratulated
Nov 30, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Seattle Kracken forward Jared McCann (19) gets congratulated / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

We went 1-1 on Friday night's two-game slate, but we still finished in the green by cashing the Blue Jackets as +135 underdogs.

Let's try to keep the good times rolling for Saturday's jam-packed slate. As always, I have three games that I'm keyed in on, including an upset pick when the Kraken take on the Senators.

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Best NHL Bets Today

  • Kraken +105 vs. Senators
  • Bruins -105 vs. Maple leafs
  • Red Wings -145 vs. Canadiens

Season-to-date record: 61-52-1 (+2.34 units)

Kraken vs. Senators prediction

I'm fading the Senators tonight for the same reason I faded them last night. Their high shooting percentage during 5-on-5 play has inflated their record this season and as a result, I believe they're overvalued in the betting market.

When you look at 5-on-5 numbers adjusting for score and venue, the Kraken rank significantly higher than the Senators in key metrics. For example, Seattle comes in at 12th in both CORSI% and expected goal differential per 60 minutes. The Senators are 22nd and 29th in those two respective categories.

Also, you have to assume Anton Forsberg will get the start for the Senators tonight after Joonas Korpisalo went last night against the Blue Jackets. His save percentage of .850 in seven games this season should be a huge concern for anyone backing Ottawa.

I'll take Seattle as a small road underdog.

Pick: Kraken +105

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs prediction

It pains to to bet against my Maple Leafs, especially when they're playing against the Bruins, but I continue to believe Toronto is the most overvalued NHL team in the betting market. The Leafs are 18th in CORSI% and 22nd in expected goal differential per 60 minutes when you look at 5-on-5 adjusted numbers.

Their power play unit does a lot of the work for them, but the Bruins have the fourth best penalty kill in the league this season so they should be well equipped to shut down the Leafs' special teams unit.

I'll begrudgingly back the Bruins in Toronto tonight.

Pick: Bruins -105

Red Wings vs. Canadiens prediction

Montreal might be the worst team in the NHL over the Candiens' last 10 games. Over that stretch, they're 30th in CORSI% and dead last in expected goal differential in 5-on-5 adjusted numbers. They also have an actual goal differential of -1.19 per 60 minutes of play over that period of time, the second worst mark in the NHL.

The Red Wings, meanwhile, have been trending in the complete opposite direction. They've been finding the back of the net at a high rate while receiving solid play between the pipes.

They're a chalky road favorite tonight, but I believe fading the Canadiens during their slump is a smart strategy to follow for the time being.

Pick: Red Wings -145

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!