Betsided

Top WNBA Picks and Predictions Today (Liberty To Give Sky Another Close Call)

By Donnavan Smoot, Ben Heisler

Aug 20, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) drives to the
Aug 20, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) drives to the / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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Despite a little hiccup on Sunday, we’re still having a great start to the WNBA playoffs. We’re over .500, are up a couple units and are feeling good heading into tonight. 

There’s only one game tonight, but it’s a deciding Game 3. The Sky and Liberty will battle it out from Wintrust Arena with a spot in the next round on the line. Whether the defending champs move on or the upstart Liberty advance, we have you covered. 

Let’s get into today’s matchups, and of course, our best bets!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

WNBA Odds, Spread and Totals for Every Game (Tuesday, August 23)

Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty

  • Spread: Sky -7.5 (-105) | Liberty +7.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Sky -325 | Liberty +250
  • Total: 165.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

All odds listed above are via FanDuel Sportsbook

Best WNBA Picks For Tuesday, August 23

  • Sky vs. Liberty UNDER 165.5 (-110) - FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Sky vs. Liberty 1Q UNDER 41.5 (-110) - WynnBET Sportsbook
  • Liberty +7.5 (-115) vs. Sky - FanDuel Sportsbook

Sky vs. Liberty Best Bets

I’ve got two bets for tonight’s winner-take-all Game 3 from Brooklyn tonight, as I expect something in the middle between the Liberty finishing on a 13-0 run to steal Game 1, and the Sky winning Game 2 by 38 points.

Let’s start with the Under on 165.5. The Liberty actually rank second in overall Defensive Rating (90.8) at home since the first of August, just 0.3 behind the Connecticut Sun. The next best team over that stretch was more than nine full points behind (100.3).

Meanwhile, the Sky have been much better defensively away from home than in Chicago; ranking second since August 1st in defensive rating on the road.

New York still likes to play in the half court, ranking 10th in possessions/40 minutes. That’s their best chance of hanging with the Sky, is slowing down their possessions, and forcing Chicago to avoid getting out in transition.

As for my second bet, I'm tempted to ride the trend of Chicago’s first quarter dominance (+25 vs. Liberty in the two games). However, when on the road, Chicago owns both the top defensive rating in first quarters, but also the worst offensive rating. Therefore, I’ll take the under 41.5 in the first period as both teams should lock in early defensively with the playoffs on the line.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

The Sky came out in Game 2 with their backs against the wall and beat the breaks off the Liberty. Chicago won by nearly 40 points, showing the Liberty what true championship grit looks like. However, the beauty about the playoffs is that you can easily put the last game behind you. 

Now the Liberty have their backs against the wall at home to avoid elimination. Instead of falling into the trap of blindly backing the Sky tonight, I like the Liberty to keep this one close.  

The last three regular season meetings between these two teams were decided by a total of 13 points – with the Liberty winning one of those games. I’m not 100% confident that the Liberty can pull off the upset, but the five overall meetings between the Sky and Liberty have shown that New York can stay close and be competitive with the champs.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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