Top WNBA Picks and Predictions Today (Mercury To Bounce Back, Back Dream Against Vaunted Sun)

Ben Heisler and Donnavan Smoot are back to give you their best bets of tonight’s WNBA slate. 

Tuesday was a good day for us, with the team going 3-1. We did suffer a bad beat in the Lynx-Storm game, missing out on the total by two points. Sometimes, you just have to chalk it up to the game. 

Today, there’s three games that Heisler and Smoot are looking at, with an Aces-Wings matinee coming first. 

Let’s get into our picks for the night. 

Best WNBA Prop Bets Record to Date

• WNBA Best Bets Record: 27-20

Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with odds coming from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Top WNBA Picks For June 15

• Aces -9 vs. Wings (-110)
• Aces vs. Wings UNDER 175 (-110)
• Mercury ML vs. Fever (-110)
• Mercury vs. Fever OVER 168 (-110)
• Dream vs. Sun OVER 155.5 (-110)
• Dream +9.5 vs. Sun (-110)

Aces vs. Wings Best Bets

Aces -9 vs. Wings (-110)

The Wings were able to push the Aces to a closer game than expected in their first meeting. Dallas covered the eight point spread, yet they are an even bigger underdog today – and I think its warranted. If you look at the box score in the last matchup, it’s the complete opposite of what the Aces are about. A’ja Wilson shot 4-for-11 from the field and the team as a whole shot 25% from three. Those two numbers are much worse than what they normally are. 

In a rematch with a chance to make adjustments, you’d think the Aces will make the necessary changes to get themselves back on track. 

The Wings have been disappointing this season, ranking near the bottom third in offensive and defensive rating. It looks as if the last game was a fluke performance. I trust the Aces to get back to their roots and get some good, efficient offense going today. – Donnavan Smoot

Aces vs. Wings UNDER 175 (-110)

Any time that teams get out of their element, playing a random afternoon game in the middle of the week, my first inclination is to take the under. This is despite the total opening up at 171.5 at most consensus books, and now sitting at 175 at WynnBET Sportsbook.

I always think about Christmas Day games in the NBA, where unders have hit at almost a 75% clip in the early afternoon matchups, and am using a similar perspective here. Also, a 3.5-point swing feels like too much and would be a bit of an overreaction to jump on the over at this point.

The Wings put up a very strong defensive effort against the Aces the last time out, only allowing 84 points on the road in Las Vegas against the most efficient offense in the league. They held the Aces to 42% shooting from the floor, and only 25% from 3-point range.

Are the Aces explosive? Of course. But Dallas was effective slowing down the pace their last time out, and now that they're at home, I expect a similar type of performance.

Dallas has come up oh-so-close in their last several games, and while I don't expect them to pull off an upset, I will back a more defensive battle than most might expect. – Ben Heisler

Mercury vs. Fever Best Bets

Mercury ML vs. Fever

The Mercury had their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday by the Washington Mystics. Washington suffocated them with its defense and won by 18 points. However, tonight will be a major change of pace for Phoenix. The Fever are in the bottom three in offensive and defensive rating, have only won 2 games out of their last 10 and have a net rating of -8.4. The one thing the Fever do is run – first in pace – but clearly that hasn’t helped their cause. 

Phoenix plays at the fourth-highest pace in the league, which means it’ll welcome Indiana’s strategy. The Mercury also have a better offensive and defensive rating than the Fever, so I’ll put trust that they can handle business today. Phoenix was playing well before it ran into title-contender Washington. Expect them to get back to that tonight. – Donnavan Smoot

Mercury vs. Fever OVER 168 (-110)

Two brutal defenses match up in Indianapolis tonight, with Phoenix and Indiana ranking 10th and 12th respectively in opponent points per game, and 9th and 10th in opponent points per 100 possessions.

After playing terrific basketball over their previous five games, the Mercury put up a stinker in their second straight game in Washington last night, and now travel again to face the Fever.

Phoenix’s 65 points was their second-worst offensive output of the season, and while they may be tired on the second leg of a back-to-back, I still anticipate a much improved offensive showing tonight.

Meanwhile, the Fever had their best defensive performance May 10 on Sunday at Minnesota, but I’m not taking much away from their 84-80 win against a Lynx squad that played without several of their top players.

Both teams like to run, ranking fourth and first in possessions per 40 minutes. That should lead to an up-and-down game before both defensives start to punt in the second half – Ben Heisler

Dream vs. Sun Best Bets

Dream vs. Sun OVER 155.5 (-110)

This is a perfect stylistic matchup in this one. The Sun have the second-best offense in the WNBA, while the Dream have the best defense in the league. While my initial thoughts were to go with the UNDER in this game, I think the OVER is the way to go. 

Even with the No. 1 defense in the league, the Dream are third in pace. I think that speed will help Connecticut, who’s second in offensive rating. I don’t want to disrespect the Dream’s accomplishments up until this point, but they haven’t played a team like the Sun this season. 

If the Dream are able to speed up the Sun, which I think they’ll welcome, and Connecticut is able to be efficient, I think the Sun will carry a lot of the load against the total. I’ll back the Sun to get to their season average in points and force the Dream to keep up. – Donnavan Smoot

Dream +9.5 vs. Sun (-110)

One of the league’s most efficient offenses match up against one of the best defenses in Connecticut tonight, and I’m siding with the defensive prowess of Atlanta, despite their recent slide.

The Dream have lost their last two games on the road, including a bad loss at Phoenix where their top-rated defense allowed a season-high 90 points against the Mercury.

Even still, as good as the Sun have been, this is a disrespectful line for a Dream squad that has held their own this year; ranking first in opponent points per game as well as opponent points per 100 possessions.

Connecticut had won four straight before their home loss to the Sky on Friday, but I think the Dream can learn from what Chicago did to contain Jonquel Jones to just seven points. The Sun also went just seven players deep in their rotations, and with Atlanta’s swarming defense, that may tire them out a bit in the second half. – Ben Heisler