Top WNBA Picks and Predictions Today (Sky Won't Fall in Brooklyn Despite Road Back-to-Back)
By Ben Heisler
Shoutout to BetSided's Joe Summers on Friday; covering for myself and Donnavan Smoot on the WNBA calendar and nailing the Dallas Wings' +8.5 cover in their 89-83 road loss to the Chicago Sky at BetSided.
For Saturday, the Sky get back on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back against the struggling New York Liberty at 7 p.m. ET in Brooklyn. Meanwhile, the L.A. Sparks look to get their third straight victory following a three-game skid on the road vs. the Las Vegas Aces tonight.
Both games will be broadcast on NBA TV nationally, adding in a little more interest across the betting world.
Let's take a look at the consensus odds for both matchups, along with our best bets for the early and late games.
Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Spread: Sky -4 (-110) | Liberty +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Sky -200 | LIberty +170
- Total: 163.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
DraftKings Sportsbook moved this down to Sky -4, while consensus sportsbooks are keeping it mostly at 4.5. WynnBET, however, has kept Chicago at -5, indicating they likely believe the move is too much towards the Liberty's side.
I tend to agree.
Playing the second leg of a road back-to-back is a challenge, but it's impossible to trust the Liberty to get the job done right now. They're losing of five straight games, and after seeing them drop an average of 109.5 points in their first two games against the Las Vegas Aces; the favorites to win the WNBA Championship, the Liberty are back to woeful offensive production. In their last three games vs. Las Vegas, Connecticut and Washington, they're averaging just 68.7 PPG in their last three games; dead-last in offensive rating and net rating.
The back-to-back still worries me, so I'll play it a little more safe and back Chicago to cover the 2.5 in the first half. The Liberty over their three game stretch rank way-last in defensive rating (122.0), as well as in net rating (-34.9). The Sky on the other hand, are tied for first in defensive rating in the first half during that same time (86.4)
PICK: Sky -2.5 1H (-110)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Spread: Sparks +9.5 (-110) | Aces -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Sparks +370 | Aces -460
- Total: 173.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
If we're playing the "transitive property" game, the Sparks' 85-78 victory over Atlanta should make them feel better about taking on the Aces as a 9.5-point road dog, considering the Dream curb-stomped Vegas 92-76 in their previous game.
I'm not buying it.
L.A.'s two wins following their losing streak have come against the worst team in the league in Indiana, and got back Atlanta by seven afterwards. In the month of July, those have been arguably the two worst teams in the WNBA, so excuse me if a pat on the back isn't exactly warranted for games the Sparks should have absolutely won.
The Sparks have been carried by Nneka Ogwumike all season long, leading L.A. with 19 PPG and 6.8 RPG, while the Aces are able to share the wealth. Kelsey Plum averages just under 20 per game and is flanked by A'ja Wilson, who is averaging just under 10 boards and is the second-favorite on the board (+120) to win WNBA MVP behind Breanna Stewart (+100).
The Sparks, despite improvements defensively still rank 11th in opponent points per 100 possessions, and in points per game.
Both teams play fast as well, with the Aces No. 1 in possessions per 40 minutes and the Sparks coming in 4th. This should give way to letting the Aces play comfortable and in transition, clearing their team total of 91.5 fairly easily.
PICK: Aces Team Total OVER 91.5 (-120)
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