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Top WNBA Picks and Predictions Today (Underdogs Show Value On Tuesday)

By Donnavan Smoot, Ben Heisler

Atlanta Dream v Dallas Wings
Atlanta Dream v Dallas Wings / Tom Pennington/GettyImages
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Ben Heisler and Donnavan Smoot are back to give you their best bets of tonight’s WNBA slate. There’s four games on the docket, and we have several picks throughout tonight’s slate.  Let’s get straight into it.

Best WNBA Prop Bets Record to Date

  • WNBA Best Bets Record: 4-7

Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with odds coming from WynnBET Sportsbook.

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Top WNBA Picks For May 24 

  • Lynx -5 vs. Liberty (-110)
  • Wings +8.5 vs. Sun (-110)
  • Liberty ML vs. Lynx (+310)
  • Fever +13 vs. Sky (-110)

Lynx -5 vs. Liberty (-110)

It may not be the most appealing matchup on tonight’s four-game set, but there is an opportunity to find an advantage when two 1-win teams match up in Minneapolis tonight between the Lynx and Liberty.

New York is a mess. They rank last in points per game, net rating, points/100 possessions, and margin/100 possessions. After stunning a very good Connecticut Sun team in their first game of the season by two, they’ve lost four straight; three of which have come by double digits and two by more than 20-plus points.

Meanwhile, the Lynx have had a brutal start to the year with five of their first seven games on the road, just wrapping a three-game trip on Saturday. While their overall numbers also rank amongst the worst in the league, they’ve been competitive in nearly every matchup. Part of their detriment is their inability to capitalize at the free-throw line; ranking dead-last in the WNBA at 73.3%.

Still, the Lynx own a sizable advantage in points per 100 possessions; outsourcing the Liberty by 10.4 per 100, as well as on the glass. New York ranks last in nearly every rebounding metric available at HerHoopStats, whereas the Lynx rank top 3 in almost all of them.

It may not be pretty, but Minnesota gets it done at home. – Ben Heisler

Wings +8.5 (-110) vs. Sun

I’m going against the numbers a bit for this matchup, as Connecticut’s metrics for the season have been awfully impressive.

Via HerHoopStats, the Sun are first in the league in net points-per-game (PPG), opponent PPG, opponent points/100 possessions, and second in points/100 possessions.

Here’s the problem. In their four wins this year? They’ve beaten a two-win Indiana Fever team twice, a two-win L.A. Sparks team once, and split their early season series vs. the New York Liberty (1-1).

The metrics may look good, but I don’t know if the Sun are actually as good as the numbers suggest.

Meanwhile, Dallas comes off an impressive road win against the Phoenix Mercury; winners of four of their last five games. Arike Ogunbuwale has been outstanding so far this year, and is third in the WNBA in points per game.

Dallas has their issues scoring from inside the arc (dead-last in the WNBA), but they’ve also beaten far better opponents than Connecticut, and have played very solid basketball of late. Expect them to keep it much closer than the line suggests – Ben Heisler

Liberty ML vs. Lynx (+310)

This is my underdog pick of the night. The Liberty and Lynx have both struggled coming out of the gate this season. They have a combined two wins, so this game can go either way. 

Minnesota, statistically, has nearly every advantage. The Lynx shoot more shots, defend slightly better and play at a higher pace. They should win this game. However, Minnesota has shown its inability to beat other bad teams – like the Indiana Fever – which should’ve been an easy win. 

New York, on the other hand, had a quality win to open the season against the Connecticut Sun. The one area that the Liberty have an advantage in is on the defensive side of the ball. New York’s defensive rating is 5.1 points better than the Lynx. 

If the Liberty want to win tonight, it will have to be on the defensive side of the ball. Neither of these teams are great offensively, so I think the Liberty have a chance and +310 odds are very enticing to me. – Donnavan Smoot

Fever +13 vs. Sky (-110)

Indiana’s only wins this season have been against the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx. I understand that, which is why I’m taking the points and not the outright win. The Fever have met this line in every game since its season opening loss to the Mystics. 

If this were a game against one of the top teams in the league, I might fade the Fever. Yet, the Sky, despite being near the top of the league statistically, haven’t been able to translate that to dominate wins.

Via HerHoopStats, Indiana has an advantage in one area – pace. The Fever play at the fastest pace in the league, which helps when your offensive rating is in the 17th percentile. Chicago plays at the slowest pace. If the Fever can speed up the Sky, this game will be a lot closer than many think. 

Indiana played the Connecticut Sun, one of the league’s best teams, and didn’t lose this badly. I’m banking on that experience and the Fever’s pace keeping it reasonable tonight. – Donnavan Smoot

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