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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Game 3 Prediction, Odds and Key Players

NHL Playoffs Betting Preview, Prediction and Best Bet for Game 5 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins.

By Jeremy Schouppe

Boston Bruins v Toronto Maple Leafs - Game Five
Boston Bruins v Toronto Maple Leafs - Game Five / Claus Andersen/GettyImages
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The Toronto Maple Leafs face elimination tonight as their series against the Bruins shifts back to Boston. During the game four loss, the Toronto Maple Leafs ended up losing Auston Matthews to an injury and pulled Ilya Samsonov and let Joseph Woll play the third period.

This leaves a lot up in the air tonight as Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe stated to the media that Auston Matthews's status for game five has yet to be determined. Also, Keefe declined to comment on who his starting goalie would be in game five. This is going to make picking a side in this one quite tricky, but more than likely, full confirmation of these things will not come until warm-up,

The Florida Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning last night, and they are now resting and waiting for the winner of this series. The Bruins will want some rest before battling it out with the Panthers, and the Maple Leafs will be fighting to stay alive. This could be a fun game tonight!

Here is our full betting preview and best bet for Game 5 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins:

Toronto Maple Leafs vs.Boston Bruins Game 5 Odds, Puck line, Total

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Betting Trends

  • The total has gone over in four of the last five Maple Leafs road games.
  • The over has hit in six of the last nine games the Maple Leafs have played.
  • The Maple Leafs are 1-10 in their last 11 games against the Bruins.
  • The Maple Leafs are 1-5 in their last six games in Boston.
  • The total has gone under in 10 of the last 13 Bruins games.
  • The total has gone under in six of the last nine games these two teams have played.
  • The total has gone under in four of the last five home games for the Bruins.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, April 30
  • Puck Drop: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: TD Garden
  • How to Watch: ESPN, SN, CBC, TVAS, NESN
  • Series Record: 3-1 Bruins

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Key Players to Watch

Toronto Maple Leafs

Mitch Marner: Marner took a lot of criticism during the game four loss for throwing a tantrum on the Maple Leafs bench. Marner is also getting a lot of unfair criticism from Leafs fans for underperforming in the playoffs despite averaging over a point per game over the last three years in the playoffs.

Marner could quiet much of this talk down with a big game tonight. Marner has 16 points in his last 12 games against the Bruins, he needs to leaf this Leafs team tonight if Matthews is out of the lineup.

Boston Bruins

Jeremy Swayman: Swayman has been the ultimate difference-maker in this series so far. He has saved 5.07 goals above expected and has a .956 save percentage. Swayman ranks first in both categories of any goalie who has made one start in the playoffs.

If he has another good game here tonight, Maple Leafs players will have nightmares about this guy all summer.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Prediction and Pick

In sports betting, nothing is a sure thing, but after watching the New York Rangers eliminate the Washington Capitals and the Florida Panthers eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning, I don't see a way for this game to stay under the 5.5 total.

So far this series, the Maple Leafs are giving up 3.5 goals per game, 3.49 expected goals per 60 minutes, and the fourth-most defensive zone turnovers per game of any team in the playoffs. If they are going to win this game, they are going to have to outscore the Bruins. The Maple Leafs are just not good enough to play and win a low-scoring game against the Bruins.

But even if the Maple Leafs struggle to score again tonight, you'll see a similar situation to what happened with the Panthers and Lightning last night. The Lightning pulled the goalie with more than five minutes remaining, which caused a game that was dead under to go over in a matter of minutes.

With the Maple Leafs averaging 3.22 expected goals per game but only scoring 1.75 in this playoff run, you would like to think they are due for some positive regression in a desperate situation, possibly missing their best player. Ultimately tonight, we see the Maple Leafs step up tonight but ultimately lose by multiple goals after empty netters send this total over.

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Over 5.5 Goals (-120)

Stats via NaturalStatTrick and MoneyPuck

Note: Game odds are subject to change.

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