Tour Championship Picks, Predictions, and Odds (Scottie Scheffler Eyeing First FedEx Cup)

After a long 2021-22 PGA Tour season, the end is finally here.

The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will head to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, for the season finale, the Tour Championship.

Scottie Scheffler tops the standings heading into the final week, and as a result, as the betting favorite to win it all.

It was announced on Tuesday morning that Will Zalatoris has withdrawn from the Tour Championship due to a back injury he sustained during the BMW Championship.

Let's dive into the top 10 odds to win the FedEx Cup, and then I'll break down how to handicap the event, as well as my top three picks to win. All odds listed below are via WynnBET Sportsbook.

Odds to Win the Tour Championship

• Scottie Scheffler +200
• Patrick Cantlay +400
• Xander Schauffele +700
• Rory McIlroy +1000
• Jon Rahm +1400
• Tony Finau +2000
• Cameron Smith +2200
• Sam Burns +2500
• Justin Thomas +3000
• Sungjae Im +3300

Tour Championship Format and How to Handicap

This is the fourth season that the Tour Championship is using its unique format where each player will start the tournament with a certain score, depending on where they finished in the standings.

Here is where all 30 golfers stand heading into East Lake, including what their score will be when they tee-off on Thursday:

Scottie Scheffler will start at 10-under par, which will be a two-stroke lead on Patrick Cantlay, and a 10-stroke lead on the five golfers who will be starting at even par.

It's important to note that two of the three winners since this format was adopted, started the event in first place. Dustin Johnson did it in 2020, and Patrick Cantlay won after starting at 10-under par last year. In the first year of the format, Rory McIlroy won after entering the event in fifth place. He made up the five strokes on the leader, and ended up running away with it, winning by four strokes.

In terms of handicapping the event, you should stick to golfers who are within seven strokes at the most. East Lake isn't exactly a track that produces a lot of scores, so golfers who are starting eight or more strokes back from the lead, have almost no chance to catch the top guys.

East Lake Golf Club demands perfection off the tee. When it comes to approach play, bettors should focus on short distance and long distance. There are very few shots that demand a mid-iron into the hole.

Here is the approach shot distribution via DataGolf. The white lines represent the Tour average percentage of approach shots from said distances.

5 Key Stats for Tour Championship

• Strokes gained: off-the-tee
• Strokes gained: approach
• Approach proximity from 125-150 yards
• Approach proximity from 200+ yards
• Strokes gained: putting

Best Bets to Win the Tour Championship

Scottie Scheffler +225

It's the square bet, it's the obvious bet, but it's the right bet.

As I mentioned above, two of the three winners of the Tour Championship came into the week in first place and started at 10-under par. Scottie Schefflers T3 finish last week was good enough to vault him up to No. 1 in the standings, and the fact he shot a gross score of 12-under at East Lake Golf Club in 2020 should give you a lot of confidence in him this week.

Xander Schauffele +800

Nobody has dominated East Lake Golf Club over the years more than Xander Schauffele. He won the event in 2017 before the net scoring was used, and in 2020 he climbed all the way from 14th in the standings on Thursday, to T2 after shooting a gross score of 15-under par.

If he can repeat that success, he has a strong catch to catch Schauffele this weekend. He'll start the event four strokes back from him at six-under par.

Rory McIlroy +1000

He's done it before, and there's no reason to think he can't do it again. McIlroy already has two FedEx Cup wins under his belt, and now he only needs to come back from one shot worse than where he started when he won by four strokes in 2019.

His issues at the FedEx St. Jude two weeks ago seemed to be fixed when he finished T8 at last week's BMW Championship.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.