Travelers Championship (2024) Event Preview, Odds and Best Bets

What a finish at Pinehurst on Sunday! Bryson Dechambeau had to hold Rory McIlroy off on the 18th hole to win his second U.S. Open and major championship. Dechambeau's bunker shot on 18 will/should go down as one of the best and one of the most clutch shots in major championship history.

Sticking a 50-yard bunker shot, one of the most challenging golf shots to kick in range on the 72-hole hole of the U.S. Open, while having Rory McIlroy breathing down your neck, is an all-time impressive. Although I did not have an outright ticket to Bryson last week, I was happy to see him win another one. He has become one of the most likeable players in golf over the previous year or two.

Unfortunately, we won't get to watch Dechambeau again this week, as the best of the PGA Tour will be in Connecticut for the Travelers Championship, played annually at TPC River Highlands. This is the second straight year that the Travelers will be a signature event, meaning a smaller field with no cut. Still, all 35 top golfers on tour will be at this event looking for their share of the $20,000,000 prize pool.

Given the condensed field of only 72 players, I will likely have a smaller card this week, but before I get into the picks for the week, let's talk about the event, course, and some critical stats I will be using to make this week's bets.

Travelers Championship Event History

Since 2010, the average winning score of this event has been -16, but in five of the last six years, we have seen the winner shoot -17 or better. Last year's champion, Keegan Bradley, shot a tournament record -23 to win the event, which prompted tournament organizers to say that they will be making conditions much more difficult this year as longer hitters have started to find ways to turn this short course into a pitch and putt driving balls over the top of trees to turn some of these holes extremely short.

Since its inception, this event has undergone numerous name and venue changes. Still, it has been held at TPC River Highlands since 1991. The players love this course, as do the fans, as it is one of the most attended events annually on the PGA Tour.

With a layout that gives every golfer a chance, we should see another tightly packed leaderboard on Sunday. This event has been won by one stroke or less in 14 of the last 20 years. With the conditions being more difficult this year, I would not be shocked to see a log jam at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Course Preview: TPC River Highlands

TPC River Highlands is one of the shortest courses played on the PGA Tour. It is a par 70, 6,852-yard course located in Cromwell, Connecticut. The short grass on the courses, including fairways and greens, is a mix of bentgrass and poa. At the same time, the rough is Kentucky Bluegrass, a fescue mix that will be four inches or taller by the time the event kicks off on Thursday.

Initially, TPC River Highlands was considered a course that distance could not overpower. Still, in recent years, we have seen longer hitters start to find lines over trees, which would cut off a lot of distance from this already short golf course.

After Keegan Bradley's record tournament score last year, tournament organizers vowed to make conditions harder going into this year's event by trying to create a better balance of risk-reward when trying to cut corners on these holes in an attempt to turn this back into a shotmakers event rather than everyone bombing drives over the top of trees.

More specifically, they made the fairway on hole No.1 much narrower and pushed the rough in on the left side of the fairway, where most tee shots settled last year. In addition, the tee box on the par four ninth hole was moved. In recent years, many of the longer players have gone overtop of trees to take a ton of distance off this already short 389-yard hole.

Still, the tee deck being pushed to the right brings the trees and houses into play, hopefully creating a much better risk-reward dynamic for taking the aggressive line. Other notable changes are the narrowing of the fairway and undulation changes at the par-five sixth hole, a much smaller green at the short par three 11th, and a rough section added in the landing zone on the par four 12th.

It is yet to be seen if these changes will have the desired effect. Either way, this is a very playable course for any player on tour. Distance has a tiny advantage in this course. Still, anyone who can put together four good ball-striking and putting rounds will find themselves in the mix coming down the stretch on Sunday.

Key Stats:

Off The Tee:

While distance off the tee is an advantage in select areas around this course, hitting fairways must be the bigger priority off the tee this weekend. With the rough being grown over four inches tall for this event, TPC River Highlands has one of the highest penalties for shots that land in the rough. On top of the thick, long bluegrass rough, there is water in play off the tee on five different holes and well-placed fairway bunkers that make players decide what club to use off the tee.

Players who keep the ball in the fairway can give themselves a ton of looks at birdies, while players consistently playing from the rough will struggle to control the distance and spin, which will be a massive problem when approaching the tiny greens at TPC River Highlands.

• Driving Accuracy %
• Good Drive %
• SG: Off-The-Tee

Approach

TPC River Highlands is a second-shot course. Four of the last five winners have finished sixth or better in strokes gained on approach. Considering this is one of the shortest courses played on tour, players have many wedges and short irons into greens.

Last year, 70% of approach shots were hit inside 175 yards, and 44.7% were hit from between 125-175 yards. This will leave players with great looks at Birdie if they are striking it well. While the greens at TPC River Highlands are pretty small, hitting the greens on approach will be a massive key to success this weekend.

• SG: Approach
• Proximity to the Hole 125-175 Yards
• Greens In Regulation %

Around The Green & Putting

I have mentioned them a lot already, but the small greens at this course will emphasize the short game around the greens. However, with wedges and short irons in the on approach, the players at the leaderboard likely have to rely less on their play around the greens.

Over the last five years, only one of the five winners has ranked inside the top 25 in strokes gained around the green in the field compared to three of the last five winners ranking inside the top five in strokes gained putting. The player who wins this event will have a red hot flat-stick; I recommend looking more at consistent putters than a guy with an excellent short game.

To win this event, you need a guy who will make a ton of birdies, and there is no better way to make birdies than with a hot putter.

• SG: Putting (Bent/Poa)
• Approach Putt Performance
• Birdie or Better Conversion %

Travellers Championship Best Bets

Brian Harman Top 20 Finish (+105)

Harman has not had the best finishes over the last few months. However, that is expected, as the previous five events have all been on pretty long courses. Harman struggles in these events as he gives up a lot of distance off the tee to some of the longer hitters on tour, but a short course like TPC River Highlands is where he thrives.

Harman has four top-10 finishes at this event in the last five years, which ranks him No.2 in the field in strokes gained on this course in the previous five years. In addition, Harman comes into this event ranked No.10 in strokes gained on short courses, No.3 in strokes gained on Pete Dye-designed courses and No.5 in strokes gained putting on bentgrass and poa mix over the last three years. Harman's superb ball-striking and putting keep him in the mix at this course every year, and I'll bank on that happening again here this weekend.

Corey Conners Top 20 Finish (+105)

Conners has been on fire recently. He has five top-20 finishes in his last six events. He is one of the best ball-strikers in the field, ranking second in strokes gained approach and third in greens in regulation percentage in the previous 12, as well as ranking in the top four in the field in both stats over the last three months.

In addition to being one of the best players on approach overall recently, Conners has been exceptional in terms of the most common approach distances golfers will face this weekend. Over the last three months, he has been the second-best golfer in the field on approach from 125-150 and 150-175 yards. Conners played in this event for the first time last year since 2020. He ended the weekend with a T9 finish.

I expect something similar again this year.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.