Travelers Championship Matchup Best Bet (Speith Struggles Continue vs Burns)
With the U.S. Open winner crowned last weekend, the PGA Tour has now set its sights on Cromwell, Connecticut, for the highly anticipated Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event, beloved by players and fans alike, is a highlight of the tour's yearly calendar. Its status as the season's last signature event only adds to the excitement and allure.
While a delight to watch, these signature events challenge gamblers. With the field reduced to 70 golfers, many weaker players are eliminated, significantly reducing the betting opportunities. This makes finding an edge in matchups, an already complex task, even more challenging.
Regardless of my whining, I identified one matchup for this week's event with a ton of value, especially if you can take advantage of Bet365's profit boost. Let's get into the pick.
Odds listed below via Bet365
Sam Burns (-138) vs Jordan Speith
This matchup is expensive, but Bet365 offers a 30% profit boost for any bet on the Travelers Championship. I have used this boost to bring the odds of this play down closer to -105! If you cannot access Bet365 and find this matchup on another book, I have the fair price of this line at -175; I would not play odds shorter than that.
Coming from a big Jordan Speith fan, it has been sad to watch him struggle this year. The three-time major championship winner has only managed three top-10 finishes this season, with the last one coming back in April at the Valero Texas Open. Outside of those top-10 finishes, he only has two other finishes inside the top 30 this season in the sixteen events he has played.
Speith will be matched with a red-hot Sam Burns, who has four top-20 finishes in his last five events and two top-10 finishes in the previous three weeks. In addition to his recent form, Burns has the course history advantage at TPC River Highlands. He has two finishes inside the top 30 and one T43 finish in four trips to this event in the last five years. In contrast, Speith has not finished higher than T54 in three visits to this event in the previous five years.
With TPC River Highlands being one of the shortest courses on tour, this event turns into a pitch-and-putt, which will not bode well for Jordan Speith. He has lost strokes putting in four of the last five events he has played and is coming into this event ranking 65th of 70 golfers in strokes gained putting over the previous two months. Comparing that to Burns, who has gained strokes by putting in three of his last four events and has the short game to match Speith around the greens, I felt comfortable paying the high price for Burns to come out on top in this matchup.