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Travis Kelce’s Receiving Yards Prop an Automatic Bet in 2022

By Reed Wallach

Jan 30, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs the
Jan 30, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs the / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
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It's not all different in Kansas City, but the competition is getting harder around them and there's some changes on offense.

Travis Kelce has been and will still be Patrick Mahomes' No. 1 target. While the team traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, the team is going to lean on their QB/TE combo that's put up 1,000-plus receiving yards in every year with Mahomes under center.

What can we expect in 2022? Will there be more schematic changes in Kansas City now that Hill is gone? Will Andy Reid start to lean on the run game now that the verticality of the offense is a bit worse?

First, here are Travis Kelce's receiving yard props for this season from DraftKings Sportsbook:

Travis Kelce 2022 Receiving Props

  • Receptions: 90 (Over -120/Under -110)
  • Receiving Yards: 1100.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
  • Receiving Touchdowns: 9.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
  • Most Receiving Yards: +2000

Travis Kelce's Over is a Must Bet with Patrick Mahomes

This is Kelce's ninth full season in the league. He has hauled in more than 800 yards in all of them as well 65 catches. Over the last six, that number has jumped to at least 80 receptions and 1,000 yards. Zoom in further to when Kelce started catching passes from Mahomes he has gone over 90 catches and 1,100 yards.

So, will Kelce get to his quota this season?

No, Hill is not here to stretch the defense but I actually believe we see even more usage for Kelce. He is the safety valve for Mahomes and I expect the team looks to protect their quarterback as much as possible and get the ball out of his hands quickly, opening up underneath routes for Kelce.

Sure, new players are going to have to step up like Juju Smith-Schuster but Kelce to Mahomes is a tried and ture formula that I expect to stand the changes on the roster.

I think the volume is there for Kelce to go over 90.5 catches, but maybe steer clear of the receiving touchdowns prop at 9.5 considering that is hit or miss over the past several years. Over the last four seasons Kelce has receiving touchdown marks of 10, 5, 11 and 9.


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