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Troy vs. Appalachian State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 3

By Reed Wallach

Sep 3, 2022; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Troy Trojans quarterback Gunnar Watson (18) hands the ball
Sep 3, 2022; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Troy Trojans quarterback Gunnar Watson (18) hands the ball / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
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Following a monumental upset, can Appalachian State follow it up as they start Sun Belt play?

Appalachian State has had a wild start to the season, losing a thrilling 121-point game against North Carolina in Week 1 at home, only to respond on the road by knocking off Texas A&M as 18-point underdogs. Now, they face a Troy team that is looking to push up the Sun Belt standings in 2022.

College GameDay will be in Boone, North Carolina for this one as the Mountaineers enter as double digit favorites, is there a letdown game in the works, or will the perennial Sun Belt contenders get off to a hot start?

Here are the odds and our game breakdown:

Troy vs. Appalachian State Odds, Spread and Total

Troy vs. Appalachian State Betting Trends

  • Appalachian State is 11-7-1 against the spread (ATS) as a home double-digit Sun Belt favorite over the last five seasons
  • Teams that are off a win as a underdog of 14 points or more and are double digit favorites are 22-14 ATS

Troy vs. Appalachian State Prediction and Pick

This is a tricky spot for App State, who played two Power 5 foes in draining games (for different reasons) and now need to focus on Troy this week.

While every conference game is important, I wonder if we see a drop in level from the Mountaineers, who I'm still not sure how to rate properly. The defense couldn't slow down a high powered UNC offense, but also were able to keep the A&M offense off the field and limit them to below 40 plays in the stunning upset.

App State has a pair of dynamic running backs in Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel, but Troy was sturdy against the run last year, top 20 nationally in success rate allowed on the ground. This season, the team has seven of their top eight tacklers back and held a run-first SEC offense in Ole Miss to 28 points.

A big reason to why I'm leaning towards the Troy side is the addition of offensive coordinator Joe Craddock, who comes from SMU and Arkansas dating back to 2015. He wants to play fast and hit explosive plays.

So far, Troy is running over 70 plays from game and we saw App State struggle to contain chunk plays against UNC. Can the Trojans and returning QB Gunnar Watson hit enough big plays to stay within this big number?

Lat season, App State went to Troy and destroyed them 45-7 as 10-point favorites. This line indicates a similar difference between the teams, but App State is in a terrible spot given their early season schedule, leading me to Troy to keep this competitive.

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