Troy vs. San Diego State Prediction and Odds for Monday, December 5 (The Aztecs Have Struggled ATS This Year)

San Diego State Aztecs guard Adam Seiko (2)
San Diego State Aztecs guard Adam Seiko (2) / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego State is 6-2, but they’re No. 24 in the country because their two losses came in one of the toughest tournaments of Feast Week. Out in Maui they defeated No. 25 Ohio State and then fell to No. 4 Arizona and No. 11 Arkansas. This team has shown an ability to battle with some of the best teams in the country and the Troy Trojans are certainly not that. Troy is 6-3, but coming off a loss to SIUE, 78-72. 

The SDSU Aztecs are big favorites at home, but will Troy and their high-scoring offense be able to hang around in their first top 25 test. 

Troy vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total

Troy vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick

Kenpom’s advanced numbers like San Diego State’s defense this year, but the traditional numbers see it as a bit of a weakness for this team.

The Aztecs are allowing 70.3 points a game which is 10th out of 11 teams in the Mountain West conference. Meanwhile they’re only scoring 79.4 points compared to Troy’s offense that is 35th in the entire country scoring 81.7. One of the Aztecs’ main issues is rebounding and they could potentially give Troy extra possessions. 

The over is 6-1 in Troy’s last seven road games which goes back to last season and the over is 10-1 in SDSU’s last 11 home games. San Diego State can’t really be trusted to cover this year, they are 2-5 against the spread while Troy is 4-2 ATS and the Aztecs are 1-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. They will keep winning games this year, but I don’t trust them to cover a big spread. 

Troy is coming off a bad loss to SIUE where Nelson Phillips, their leading scorer, played poorly with just eight points. I think they’ll bounce back out on the west coast tonight and keep this one a little bit closer against a Top 25 team, but the trends tell me the best bet is on the over. 

Pick: Over 137.5 (-110)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change