Trust Tomlin's Perfect Streak With Steelers Win Total Bet

Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as the Steelers' coach
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as the Steelers' coach / David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

In 15 seasons leading the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record. His sterling track record as an underdog is well-documented, but his perfect streak is in jeopardy with the Steelers switching to Kenny Pickett at QB after a 1-3 start.

Pittsburgh's win total sits at 5.5, with plus-odds on the over - can Tomlin continue his NFL-record and win us some cash in the process?

Steelers Win Total Over/Under

With 17 games in the regular season, Pittsburgh must finish with at least nine wins total to keep Tomlin's streak alive. Its 1-3 start gives us a win total of just 5.5, so we've got a ton of room to cash this over and Tomlin still fall short.

I believe in Tomlin, especially with perhaps the best QB he's coached in several years taking the helm of an explosive group of playmakers, and think this over is a slam-dunk bet.

The Steelers' two largest problems this season are obvious: quarterback play and TJ Watt's absence. Well, the remedy arrived for both problems this week.

In just one-half of play on no notice, Pickett's completion percentage (76.9%) and yards per attempt (9.2) were dramatic improvements over Trubisky's season averages of 59.5% and 5.6, respectively. He showed a strong rapport with rookie WR George Pickens and became the first QB in NFL history to rush for two TDs in his debut, which is a fun trivia question you could answer one day.

There's hope in the organization TJ Watt could return as soon as Week 6 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, giving the Steelers over half the season to pick up the five more wins they need to hit this over bet.

That being said, Pittsburgh's upcoming schedule features the Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, and Eagles. It gets dramatically easier after the Week 9 bye, and it might be wise to wait a few weeks for the win total to keep dropping before placing your bet. I like Pickett's game though, and if they pick up an upset in this stretch you won't see +120 odds again.

At the least, oddsmakers already assume Pittsburgh will lose the next few weeks, so we aren't losing value if they actually do. We always say to buy-low, sell-high and it's hard to spot a better buy-low opportunity than this one.

The Steelers have too much talent to stay this bad, especially now that the two biggest problems have apparent solutions. I'm betting their win total over with confidence as Tomlin tries to extend his historic streak.