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Tulane vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Odds for College Football Week 13 (Who Will Advance to AAC Championship?)

By Reed Wallach

Nov 17, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tulane Green Wave safety Lummie Young IV (23) celebrates
Nov 17, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tulane Green Wave safety Lummie Young IV (23) celebrates / Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
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It's win or go home for these two AAC teams with the winner hosting the conference title game next weekend.

Tulane knocked off SMU in blowout fashion to stay in control of the AAC race, and now have more than a week of prep time for Cincinnati in the regualr season finale. The Bercats won 23-3 againt Temple, but also may have lost quarterback Ben Bryant to injury on Saturday. Unlike their opponent, the Bearcats have a quick turnaroudn with the early Friday kickoff.

How should we bet this pivotal AAC meeting?

Here are the odds:

Tulane vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread and Total

Tulane vs. Cincinnati Betting Trends

  • Tulane is 9-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, including 2-0 as an underdog
  • Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season
  • Tulane has gone UNDER in both games as an underdog

Tulane vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick

The injury to Bryant is a massive blow to the Bearcats chances of making it three straight conference titles. Evan Prater, who competed with Bryant for the starting quarterback job before the season started, replaced him and played well in the second half against Temple, completing 12-of-17 passes for 127 yards, but this is a tough Tulane defense.

The Green Wave defense is 15th in the country in yards per play allowed and top 25 in points per drive allowed. The big issue for the Bearcats, whether it's Bryant or Prater, is that they are one dimensional. The team hasn't been able to run the ball all season, 117th in success rate and 96th in EPA/Rush. This is a problem against a veteran bunch that is 31st in Bill Connely's SP+ defensive rating.

On the other side, Cincinnati's defense benefitted from some timely turnovers agianst Temple to cover the 17-point spread, but the Green Wave is able to mix it up, 36th in success rate on the year with explosive running back Tyjae Spears, who has rushed for over 100 in five straight games and has 12 touchdowns on the season.

I rate Tulane as the better team, and the loss of Bryant is going to make it even more difficult for the Bearcats offense to operate. I think the Green Wave win this one outright and go to the AAC title game.

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