Tulane vs. Houston Prediction and Odds For AAC Tournament Semifinals (Count on High-Scoring Game)

After taking down Temple yesterday, the 14-14 #5 Tulane Green Wave now battle the conference Goliath as they'll wage war against the 27-5 #1 Houston Cougars in the AAC Tournament Semifinals today at 3:00 PM EST.

The Cougars utilized a late surge to overcome Cincinnati in their quarterfinal matchup and beat Tulane twice in the regular season, once by nine and once by 14. They've covered the spread in five of six, but the Green Wave have rattled off three straight covers of their own.

Can Tulane find their best slingshot and keep their season alive or will Houston squash David's dreams and keep the Green Wave out of the promised land?

Here are the odds via WynnBET to help us pick a winner in this AAC Tournament Semifinal matchup:

Tulane vs Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Tulane +13.5 (-110)
• Houston -13.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Tulane: +750
• Houston: -2000

Total:

• 133 (Over -110/Under -110)

Tulane vs Houston Prediction and Pick

Houston is going to absolutely feast on the boards. The Cougars are in the 100th percentile in offensive rebounding percentage, gobbling up 42.4% of their missed shots over their last five games, while Tulane is in the 5th percentile in defensive rebounding rate in that same time span.

The only way the Green Wave can keep pace with how much the Cougars are going to score inside is if they catch fire from deep. Houston has the 5th-best two-point defense in the country and is in the 99th percentile in block percentage, so Tulane will need to shoot a ton from outside to have a chance. The Green Wave are in the 67th percentile in three-point attempt rate so they're comfortable firing away. If they miss, expect long rebounds to turn into transition looks for Houston, which means a faster pace than they typically play.

That faster pace leads me to the over. Tulane will not be able to stop Houston inside and have to turn this into a track meet. We saw both of the first two games between these teams go over and the over is 8-2 in the Green Wave's last ten as they've adopted more of a run-and-gun type of style.

Unders have been an excellent bet in Cougars games all year, but there's plenty of reason to think this matchup is going over. In addition to the style the Green Wave will have to force, both teams get to the free throw line a ton. Houston ranks in the 90th percentile in free throw rate over their last five and Tulane is in the 87th, so we should see enough opportunities at the charity stripe to help push this over.

And Houston's offensive rebounding advantage means more possessions, which give us more chances for easy points inside.

All in all, I'm banking on the over hitting for a fourth time in five games between these squads and think we'll see a high-scoring contest.

Pick: Over 133 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.