Twins vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, August 23 (Twins Undervalued)

The Minnesota Twins failed to capitalize on a huge opportunity to retake the AL Central lead after losing three straight winnable games to the Texas Rangers. Against three weak starting pitchers and a lackluster bullpen, the Twins scored just four runs total.

Now, AL Cy Young-favorite Justin Verlander and one of MLB's premier bullpens awaits Minnesota in Houston as the Astros gun for a fifth straight win as home favorites.

Verlander allowed more than three runs just twice in 22 starts thus far and sports a ridiculous 15-3 record with a 1.95 ERA.

To make matters worse, Aaron Sanchez pitches for Minnesota. Sanchez is a disaster, compiling an 7.68 ERA on the season with terrible underlying metrics.

Can the Twins pull off a miracle after letting opportunity slip through their fingers? Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find out:

Twins vs Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Twins +2.5 (-155)
• Astros -2.5 (+110)

Moneyline:

• Twins: +260
• Astros: -300

Total:

• 7.5 (Over -135/Under -105)

Twins vs Astros Prediction and Pick

I had every intention of writing up an Astros blowout, but then WynnBET just had to hang +260 odds with the Minnesota Twins and I don't think I can resist.

The Twins are a better ballclub than they've shown the last three days, and the lineup still ranks 13th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month while Houston is 11th. It's baseball, after all, and bad teams win as huge underdogs all of the time. Well, good teams can win as huge underdogs too.

I'll admit that Aaron Sanchez's numbers on the year are absolutely horrendous. The guy ranks in the second percentile in expected batting average, for crying out loud, but he's had an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 3.48 for two consecutive starts. That includes a strong 2.30 in his last outing, and Verlander has an expected FIP above 4.71 in two of his last four outings.

Odds of +260 mean we need to win this bet just under 28% of the time to be profitable. Minnesota can win this game at a higher percentage than that - the talent on the team still exists despite the last three days of woeful results.

If the Twins hadn't collapsed against Texas, these odds would be much shorter. Thus, I see value in taking a shot on Minnesota. I expect to lose this bet more often than not, but we've got to take swings in MLB and I'm ready for a moon shot today. Back the Twins to hand Houston a third straight loss behind Verlander as their lineup finally wakes up.

Pick: Twins (+260)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.