The Minnesota Twins desperately need to snap their four-game losing streak on Wednesday, but have a tough matchup with the AL West-leading Houston Astros.
Houston lefty Framber Valdez (12-4, 2.72 ERA) gets the ball against Minnesota’s Dylan Bundy (7-5, 4.60 ERA). Usually, Bundy is one of the pitchers I’d look to fade, but he’s turned things around as of late for the Twins.
Minnesota is now three games back in the AL Central, but are still ahead of the Chicago White Sox, who have also struggled lately.
Let’s jump into the odds from WynnBET for this matchup between AL playoff contenders:
Twins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total
- Twins +1.5 (-115)
- Astros -1.5 (-105)
- Twins: +205
- Astros: -225
- 7.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
Twins vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
Valdez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, registering quality start after quality start. He has led the Astros to a 15-8 record in his 23 starts. There are only two times this season that Valdez has allowed more than three runs, and only one of those outings he allowed more than three earned runs.
It’s a hefty price to lay with the Astros if you want to back Valdez, but I actually think there is value on the UNDER at plus money.
Bundy, after a brutal start to the 2022 season, has been much better over his last four starts. He has a 2.79 ERA in that stretch, and if you go back even further to his last 11 starts, he’s registered a respectable 3.59 ERA.
Both of these bullpens are solid, ranking in the top half of the league. The Astros are elite, ranking No. 2 in bullpen ERA in 2022, which should help this game go UNDER.
While I like Houston to win, I see more value in this bet on the total rather than laying the juice with the ‘Stros.
Lean: UNDER 7.5 (+100)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.