Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Odds for June 3 (Kikuchi on the Mound Provides Value on Total)
By Josh Yourish
The Minnesota Twins enter this weekend series vs. the Toronto Blue Jays with injuries piling up in their rotation.
Sonny Gray has a right pectoral strain and was just sent to the IL; joining Chris Paddack and Josh Winder. That leaves Chi Chi Gonzalez, who Minnesota (30-23) just added to the big league roster, to start on Friday. Toronto (30-20) runs out Yusei Kikuchi.
The Twins have dropped the final three games of their 4-game series with Detroit prior to their trip to Toronto. Conversely the Blue Jays are riding an 8-game winning streak.
Here are the latest odds for tonight's matchup over at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Runline and Total
Run Line
- Twins +1.5 (-105)
- Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Twins +190
- Blue Jays -210
Total
9.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Gonzalez, the former first round pick in 2013, is making his first big league appearance of 2022, but last season he made 18 starts for Colorado and finished with a 6.46 ERA and a 5.37 FIP. This year at Triple A Saint Paul, Gonzalez has a 3.44 ERA in 36.2 IP. Even in the minors he has failed to go beyond 6.0 IP in an appearance and hasn’t been stellar in his last few outings.
Kikuchi has been solid in his first year for Toronto with a 3.48 ERA which would be good for a career best. Most of his number have been above or around his career numbers. However, his walk rate is up to 5.2 walks per 9.
I brought up the increased walk rate of Kikuchi which is over a walk per nine up from his career average, because of the opponent. There is a clear mismatch on the mound in this one, Kikuchi is a much better pitcher than Gonzalez who has been in Triple A all year. However, the Minnesota Twins have drawn the third most walks of any team in the MLB this season.
The Blue Jays are 1-5 in games Kikuchi starts and issuing three or more free passes. This could mean there is value on the Twins tonight, but Toronto has finally got things rolling on offense. In this 8-game winning streak, they have produced less than six runs only once.
Pick: Over 9.5 -110
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