Twins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Sunday, June 19 (Chris Archer the Opener)
By Josh Yourish
It’s the rubber match on Father’s Day in Arizona after Minnesota pummeled Arizona 11-1 in the second of three games between these two teams. Dylan Bundy pitched a gem for Minnesota, going eight innings and allowing just one run. That brings the Twins to 38-29 and Arizona to 31-36.
Game 3 will be started by Chris Archer for the Twins. Archer has a 3.35 ERA over his twelve starts, but has only gone 48.1 innings, about four innings per start.
Merrill Kelly will get the ball for the Diamondbacks. Kelly is 5-4 with a 3.68 ERA this year.
Odds are available in the WynnBET Sportsbook:
Twins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Twins -1.5 (+130)
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline
- Twins -114
- Diamondbacks +104
Total
- 9 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Twins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
The fact that Chris Archer has again become a viable starting pitcher in the major leagues is such a testament to not only Tampa Bay resurrecting him some last season, but also Minnesota for recognizing how they can optimize his performance. Though, he has yet to go longer than five innings in any start this season and averages about four innings per start.
I would hardly call him a starting pitcher, essentially he has become, Chris Archer the opener.
This strategy protects against Archer seeing the lineup a third time through. He is essentially a two-pitch pitcher with his slider and fastball which account for 82.6% of his pitches. So Minnesota and Rocco Baldelli make sure not to overexpose him and that plan has worked to the tune of a 3.35 ERA. Though the indicator stats are worse than ever. His K/BB ratio is 1.61, his previous career low was 2.40, and his FIP is 4.77. Though if the Twins continue to get him out early, it may not end up hurting him.
Kelly has a 3.68 ERA and a 3.42 FIP on the year, but is buoyed by an impressive April where his ERA was 1.27. Since his start on May 11th, Kelly’s ERA is 6.35 and he is issuing 5.29 walks per nine innings.
Minnesota’s offense will likely remain hot for the second straight day and if Archer can hand in off to the bullpen, that should be enough.
Pick: Twins -114
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