Twins vs. Guardians Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Saturday, September 17 (Back Bieber Against a Rookie Starter)

Sep 6, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57)
Sep 6, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57) / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

A week ago it looked like the Cleveland Guardians finally put away the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Cleveland went up to Minnesota and left with a sweep and a five game lead in the division. After a Game 1 win last night, the Guardians have the Twins for a doubleheader today and a chance to put the nail in the coffin. 

Shane Bieber will try to play the role of undertaker in Game 1 today. Louie Varland will start for Minnesota and go head-to-head with the former Cy Young winner. 

Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Twins vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

These two teams seemed very similar caliber coming into September, but now Cleveland leads the season series 10-5 and have six straight wins over Minnesota. It’s been pure dominance and the type of run a team must go on to win a tight division race. 

The biggest difference between the teams is the pitching and that will be on full display today with Louie Varland -- a rookie making his second career start going up against Shane Bieber. Varland pitched well in his first outing against the Yankees. He went 5.1 and gave up two earned runs, but he had fantastic BABIP luck in that game. The Yankees batting average on balls in play was .200 when typically that number is about 100 points higher. You can say that he pitched to contact well and let his defense make plays, but honestly BABIP is more luck than anything, and it always regresses back to the mean. 

Shane Bieber has a 2.91 ERA with 178 strikeouts to 35 walks. He is not back to his Cy Young level of dominance, but he has been fantastic and will be leaned on by the Guardians in the playoffs because a big win today will put them there. 

Pick: Guardians -1.5 (-125)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE