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Twins vs. Guardians Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, June 28 (Cleveland Holds Slight Edge on Hill)

By Matt De Saro

Cleveland Guardians starter Zach Plesac.
Cleveland Guardians starter Zach Plesac. / G Fiume/GettyImages
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This is one of the most intriguing series of the week considering the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians are locked in a battle for first place in the AL Central. The Twins entered this five-game series with a slim two-game lead in the division over Cleveland.

Cleveland, on the other hand, entered this series on a four-game losing streak after being swept by the Boston Red Sox. On the bright side, the Guardians took two of three from the Twins last week and scored a total of 17 runs in those victories. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Twins: -1.5 (+152)
  • Guardians: +1.5 (-184)

Moneyline:

  • Twins: -102
  • Guardians: -108

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Twins vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

The Guardians would love to get back into first place with a solid showing against the Twins this week. Today, in Game 1 of this series, I kind of like Zach Plesac to put on a good show for the Guardians. Plesac’s season numbers aren’t great at 2-5 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

However, in four June starts, Plesac has a 2.63 ERA in 24 innings. He’s allowed more than two runs just once in his last five starts and has a 22:4 K:BB rate in that span. Plesac also has a strong .216 batting average against the current Twins lineup over 60 at-bats. 

While Plesac is getting better as the season goes on, the opposite can be said for the Twins’ starter tonight, Devin Smeltzer. The 26-year-old lefty is 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight starts. But, after posting an ERA of 1.50 over his first four starts, Smeltzer now has an ERA of 4.87 in his latest four.

Full disclosure, he did shut out the Guardians over six innings on Thursday. But he allowed a terrible Arizona Diamondbacks team to score six runs against him the game before. I think his gem against the Guardians was a fluke and he might have a bit of false confidence heading into today. 

Pick: Guardians ML (-108)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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