Twins vs. Mariners prediction and odds for Thursday, July 20
By Josh Yourish
It’s getting close to now or never for the Seattle Mariners especially after dropping two of the first three in this four-game series with the Minnesota Twins. Seattle is heading into the series finale at 47-48 and 5.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. Minnesota is just 50-47, but doesn’t have to worry about a Wild Card spot as they lead the AL Central.
It’s a good matchup on the mound this afternoon in Seattle as Pablo Lopez squares off with George Kirby. Lopez and Kirby are both coming off of really poor outings last time. Lopez is 5-5 with a 4.24 ERA while Kirby is 8-8 with a 3.43 ERA.
Let’s get into the odds.
Twins vs. Mariners odds, run line and total
Twins vs. Mariners prediction and pick
I’m not sure which pitcher was worse last time out. Kirby allowed six runs on eight hits to the Tigers in five innings and Lopez gave up seven runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings against the A’s. Both faced terrible offense and both got shelled, but I like their prospects in this matchup a lot more.
Pablo Lopez doesn’t have a great ERA, but he does have a stellar 3.37 FIP with a 3.10 expected ERA which is 87th percentile in the MLB. I keep waiting for Lopez to go on a tear because his underlying numbers have been fantastic all season, but it hasn’t happened yet. I trust the numbers and I trust Lopez on the mound even after getting knocked around by the A’s in his most recent start. You don’t often find pitchers that are 88th percentile in strikeout rate and 71st percentile in walk rate with a 79th percentile average exit velocity. That’s a recipe for very real success and that’s what I expect Lopez to find from today on.
Kirby’s underlying numbers aren’t exactly as great as Lopez’s, but his ERA isn’t nearly as bad as Lopez’s either. Kirby was due for a bit of regression and he got it. When he took the mound last time his ERA was sitting pretty at 3.09 while his FIP was 3.30; that’s not a huge discrepancy, but Kirby’s season keeps following a trend where he’ll have a few great starts, his ERA will drop while his FIP sit around 3.50 and then a blow up start comes.
Kirby always follows up a bad start with a great one. Last start was the fourth time he has allowed four or more runs in a start this season and he’s followed up the previous three with just one total earned run across 20 innings with 21 strikeouts to zero walks. No team has struck out more this season than the Twins.
This is a great matchup for both pitchers and I expect fantastic outings from Lopez and Kirby. Let’s take the under this afternoon.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change