Twins vs. Mariners prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 18 (Prepare for pitcher’s duel)

Bryan Woo and Bailey Ober may be in line for a pitcher's duel on Tuesday night in Seattle.
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober.
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins dropped their series opener with the Seattle Mariners on Monday night, as starter Sonny Gray was knocked around a bit, giving up five runs in 5.2 innings of work. 

Minnesota will look to bounce back on Tuesday against Mariners rookie Bryan Woo (1-1, 3.63 ERA) taking the mound for Seattle. He will be opposed by Bailey Ober (5-4, 2.61 ERA).

Ober has been terrific for the Twins this season, posting a Fielding Independent Pitching of just 3.39 and allowing fewer than four earned runs in all but one start.

That’s led to a rather low total being set in this game between two playoff hopeful teams. 

Here’s how I’d wager on this matchup, including the latest odds for the game: 

Twins vs. Mariners odds, run line and total

Twins vs. Mariners prediction and pick

Woo is just a rookie, but he's shown some promise with a 3.08 FIP. He's really pitched well since being knocked around in his Major League debut.

Woo should have no problem against a weaker Minnesota offense, which ranks 18th in MLB in OPS and 21st in runs scored this season. The Mariners righty has pitched to a 2.20 ERA over his last six starts. 

Meanwhile, I think Ober could be one of the most undervalued starters in Major League Baseball this season. 

His Statcast profile shows that he's in the upper half of the league in almost every key metric, and his hard hit percentage is one of the best in baseball. Plus, he doesn't allow many free passes, which is a big reason why teams have failed to score much on him.

Ober has given up just one run and six hits in 13.0 innings of work in July, so I'm confident he can shut down Seattle in this game.

The Mariners’ offense has been awful in 2023, ranking 23rd in OPS and 18th in runs scored.

Plus, Minnesota is 48-43-4 on UNDERs this season. 

I expect a low-scoring game in Seattle on Tuesday night. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.