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Twins vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Friday, June 28

The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners open up a weekend series in Seattle beginning on Friday.

By Benjamin Upson

Jun 22, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) pitches against the Miami Marlins in the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 22, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) pitches against the Miami Marlins in the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports / Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports
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The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners open their weekend series in the northwest United States on Friday. Both teams have been on opposite coasts this week with the Twins dropping two of three on the road to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Mariners were defeated in two of three against the Tampa Bay Rays from the east coast.

It will be a deadlock battle as both teams are currently occupying 45-36 and 45-37 records. Seattle leads the American League West while the Twins continue to battle for 2nd place in an extremely competitive Central division. Here’s what to look for in Friday’s showdown.

Twins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Twins: +1.5 (-200)
  • Mariners: -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline

  • Twins: +108
  • Mariners: -126

Total: 7 (Over -118/Under -104)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Twins vs. Mariners Betting Trends

  • Twins are 12-15 as an underdog this season
  • Mariners are 27-12 at home this season
  • Twins are 30-25 in non-divisional games this season
  • Mariners are 33-26 against the American League

Twins vs. Mariners: How To Watch

  • Date: Friday, June 28th
  • Game Time: 9:40 PM
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
  • How To Watch (TV, Streaming): Bally Sports North, Root Sports Northwest
  • Twins Record: 45-36
  • Mariners Record: 46-37

Twins vs. Mariners Key Players To Watch

Twins

Willi Castro: The hottest offensive player entering this series is Willi Castro. He’s currently on a 10-game hitting streak, tied for the 6th longest active hitting streak entering Friday’s play. In that stretch, he’s gone 17-42 with 2 homers, 9 RBI and 8 doubles. Castro in 2024 is batting .277 with 7 home runs, 27 RBI. The 27-year-old shortstop has spent his time in the AL Central, formerly a member of the Detroit Tigers, before moving to Minnesota in 2023.

Mariners

Mitch Garver: For someone who’s been having a very cold year, you wouldn’t think of Mitch Garver being a player to watch. He’s on a 4-game hitting streak and facing his former team that he spent the first 5 years of his career with. Garver is batting .178 with 10 home runs and 31 RBI this season, but against the Twins in his past 5 games is 8-16 with 4 runs scored, 3 homers and 6 RBI. From World Series champion with Texas in 2023 to cross-division rival Seattle, Garver is an interesting watch this weekend.

Twins vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

This weekend's set between Minnesota and Seattle is another good test for two American League teams who are playing some quality baseball as we prepare to flip the calendar over to July. It’s fair to say that both teams are matching preseason expectations, which was playoff appearances. Seattle had some traction for being a dark horse World Series contender as well.

In the pitching matchups, Bailey Ober takes the stage for the Twins in this game. It’s been a rather consistent year for Ober, who became just the 13th pitcher to toss a complete game this MLB season in a 10-2 victory on Saturday at Oakland. Ober was able to limit his outing to just 89 pitches, remarkable in today’s game. His marks read a 7-4 record, 4.50 ERA, 83 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP. He’s recorded 18 strikeouts in his past two games, tied for 12th amongst all MLB pitchers across the last 15 days.

Logan Gilbert is the ace on the other side for the Mariners. For a few years, he’s been considered as one of the top arms on a strong Seattle pitching staff and he’s certainly backing that statement up in 2024. Gilbert has been very strong with a 5-4 record, 2.71 ERA, 99 strikeouts, and just 21 walks allowed, 19th best amongst MLB starters this season. He additionally hasn’t allowed a run in his past two starts. He tossed 8 shutout innings of work against Texas on June 16th, allowing just 4 hits. On June 22nd, he allowed just 2 hits and recorded 9 strikeouts over 8 innings.

An interesting note is that Seattle has struggled mightily at home on offense this season. They score the 2nd fewest runs per game (3.77) on home field across the entire league. Meanwhile, Minnesota has the 5th best road performance in runs per game (5.12). Seattle’s team batting average is .219, also 2nd to last in the MLB. Minnesota ranks 10th in hits per game (8.42).

The difference will be from pitching. Both Ober and Gilbert are entering on excellent form, but as we’ve seen since the 2022 season, it’s fair to say Gilbert is one of the more commanding aces in the entire league. Seattle’s 45-37 record has been built primarily based on pitching. Their staff has a league leading WHIP of 1.081, the 8th best in team ERA (3.57) and hold their opponents to 3.78 runs per game (5th in MLB). I like the Mariners to win this game at a good price (-130 currently on FanDuel Sportsbook) and will put my trust in Gilbert.

Pick: Mariners ML (-126)

Note: Game odds are subject to change.

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