The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners have split the first two games of their series this week, combining for 13 runs in each of them.
Seattle will look to bounce back on Wednesday after a 10-3 loss on Tuesday night, and it has its ace Luis Castillo (6-7, 2.96 ERA) taking the mound. He will be opposed by veteran Kenta Maeda (2-5, 5.50 ERA).
Maeda’s underlying numbers show he may be better than his current ERA suggests this season. The righty has just a 3.45 Fielding Independent Pitching, which is lower than Castillo (3.91).
That’s led to a rather low total being set in this game (seven runs) between two playoff hopeful teams that seem to have found their offense in this series.
Here’s how I’d wager on this matchup, including the latest odds for the game:
Twins vs. Mariners odds, run line and total
Twins vs. Mariners prediction and pick
Despite the low total in this matchup, I’m looking at an UNDER in the first five innings.
Both of these pitchers are solid, and I’d prefer to avoid having to look at either bullpen to cash this bet.
This is the 20th start of the season for Castillo, and he’s been remarkably consistent, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 16 of his first 19 outings.
Minnesota’s offense, despite scoring 10 runs on Tuesday, has not been great this season. The team ranks 18th in MLB in OPS and 20th in runs scored in 2023.
Meanwhile, I really think Maeda could be one of the most undervalued starters in Major League Baseball this season.
His ERA is a product of one poor outing (10 runs allowed in three innings against the New York Yankees). Outside of that game, he’s pitched quite well for the Twins.
Since injuries have limited Maeda to just eight starts, that outing really puts a damper on his season-long numbers.
However, outside of that start he’s allowed more than three runs just once, and he ranks in the 60th percentile in expected ERA this season. Similar to the Twins, the Mariners’ offense has been dismal in 2023, ranking 23rd in OPS and 17th in runs scored.
I expect a low-scoring game – at least early on – in Seattle.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.