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Twins vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Thursday, May 5 (Both Starters Due for Regression in Baltimore)

By Ben Heisler

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Chris Archer appears to finally be healthy in the Twins' starting rotation this season.
Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Chris Archer appears to finally be healthy in the Twins' starting rotation this season. / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
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It's a rare getaway night game in the Charm City when the Minnesota Twins wrap up a four-game set with the Baltimore Orioles this evening.

After the Twins took the first two, the Orioles dropped a nine-spot on Minnesota Wednesday night, scoring all nine runs in the 3rd and 4th innings.

The finale looks to be a compelling pitcher's duel, as both starters Chris Archer and Spenser Watkins have both pitched to an ERA of less than 3 through the first month of the season.

Here are the latest odds from Oriole Park at Camden Yards over at WynnBET Sportsbook

Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Twins -1.5 (+100)
  • Orioles +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline:

  • Twins -160
  • Orioles +140

Total:

  • 8 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Twins vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

I'm trying to determine which of these pitchers' comeback so far in 2022 is a better story, because there's a compelling argument for each.

Last year, Archer pitched just 19 innings in his return to Tampa Bay before dealing with multiple injuries. It's been nearly seven years since he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.

This year, while Archer's ERA sits at 2.93, he's been effectively wild in the process. The walk rate is the highest of his career (5.28 walks per nine innings) and his fielder independent pitching (FIP) number of 5.57 indicates he's been quite lucky relative to his actual ERA.

As for Watkins, the 29-year old right-hander had an ERA of 8.07 a season ago for the O's, giving up a whopping 2.30 home runs per nine innings. This year, he's been much better keeping the ball down (1.02 HR/9), but he's not getting many swings and misses. Watkins averages a tick over four strikeouts per nine innings, and like Archer, his FIP is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA.

Both pitchers, while good stories to begin the season, are due to regress, and I'll be on the over happening this evening as a result of it.

PICK: OVER 8 (-110)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

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