Twins vs. Royals Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 21 (Brad Keller is on Fire but the Royals Still Struggling)

The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals are back at it on Saturday with Game 2 of their three-game weekend series at Kauffman Stadium. The Twins took Game 1 yesterday over the Royals who have a terrible team, record, and overall look about them. They are 14-24, fourth in the AL Central, and haven’t won a series since April 21. Coincidentally, that series win is their only one of the season and came against the Twins. 

The Twins, meanwhile, shook off that series loss and now lead the AL Central with a 23-16 record. Minnesota is 4-1 straight up in their last four games and does well against bad teams. While that may sound obvious, there are many good teams who play down to lesser opponents and end up losing a lot of winnable games. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

• Twins: -1.5 (+112)
• Royals: +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline:

• Twins: -145
• Royals: +135

Total:

• Total 7.5 (Over +105/Under -125)

Twins vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

As is the case with most games in the MLB, I think this one will come down to the starters. Both Joe Ryan and Brad Keller have similar stats and those stats are all very good. Keller enters this game with a 2.89 ERA and 1.01 ERA in 43 ⅔ innings. He has been one of the only bright spots on this terrible team and ranks in the top 25 of most relevant stats. The Royals don’t do much to back him up and have only earned him one win despite all that solid work. 

Meanwhile, Joe Ryan continues to look like a strong piece for the future of this franchise with a 4-2 record, 2.39 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP in 37 ⅔ innings. Ryan has given up more than three runs just once this year and twice held teams scoreless over six innings or more. I also like his strikeout to walk rate of 36:12. And this is where I think the separation between these two pitchers comes in. While Ryan strikes out a lot of hitters, Keller is very hit and miss depending on the matchup. He’s struck out three or less in four straight games and doesn’t have a start with more than five. While this is a big deal, it’s worth noting that the Royals, for as bad as they are, rarely strikeout out. 

Even with the potential lack of strikeout for Ryan, I don’t see the Royals doing much more than just not striking out. KC ranks 25th in runs scored at 3.61 while the Twins average 4.15 per game. With Salvador Perez out for KC, all signs are pointing to a road win by the Twins. The plus money spread odds are too juicy to ignore here. 

Pick: Twins -1.5 (+112)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE