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Twins vs. Tigers Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 24 (Buy Low on Sonny Gray)

By Joe Summers

Sonny Gray struggled in his last two outings but prior to that hadn't allowed more than three runs in a single start.
Sonny Gray struggled in his last two outings but prior to that hadn't allowed more than three runs in a single start. / Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports
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A broken clock is right twice a day, right? Well, the struggling Detroit Tigers have excelled as home underdogs of late, winning six of their last seven.

They hope to stay feisty with Rony Garcia on the hill today against Minnesota. The Minnesota Twins hammered Garcia for six runs in five innings last month, but Detroit has three straight wins behind the 24-year-old righty as he's compiled a 3.91 ERA this month.

I think Garcia and Sonny Gray may have accidentally pulled a Freaky Friday, because Gray has completely imploded after a fantastic start to the season. He has a 9.45 ERA over his last three starts, surrendering more runs in that stretch than he had in his 10 starts prior.

Can Gray turn things around or will Garcia pull off another victory?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find out ahead of this Twins vs Tigers matchup:

Twins vs Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Twins -1.5 (-110)
  • Tigers +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Twins: -173
  • Tigers: +158

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Twins vs Tigers Prediction and Pick

This is a perfect buy-low spot on Sonny Gray. I'm willing to trust his body of work on the year and chalk up the last two starts to just poor outings. Prior to giving up 11 runs in those two outings, he'd held every single opponent to three runs or fewer as the Twins had won eight of nine behind him.

Detroit is the perfect team to face when you're slumping on the mound. Just last month, Gray threw seven shutout innings against Detroit while striking out a season-high 10 batters.

But the biggest reason to feel comfortable backing Minnesota is the pitcher starting opposite Gray. Rony Garcia has a dreadful 6.21 expected ERA. By all measures, he's one of the very worst starters in MLB. Check out his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and try not to wince in despair:

Kudos if you actually were able to avoid wincing.

If this game were played two weeks ago, the Twins' run line would be sitting somewhere in the -140 range. That we're getting -110 odds on it is a great value, and I'll trust Gray over Garcia in this one.

Pick: Twins -1.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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