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Twins vs. White Sox Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, July 5 (Regression Could be Coming for Kopech)

By Josh Yourish

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Michael Kopech (34)
Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Michael Kopech (34) / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
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Minnesota extended its lead over Chicago and Cleveland yesterday with a 6-3 win over the White Sox. The Twins move to 46-37, 3.5 games up on Cleveland and 5.5 games ahead of the 38-40 White Sox. 

Game 2 between the White Sox and Twins in Minnesota gives us a look at Chris Archer and Michael Kopech on the mound. 

So, will Minnesota continue to separate themselves as the class of the AL Central or will the White Sox claw back to .500 and into the playoff race in the American League? Check out odds for this AL Central matchup at WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Twins +1.5 (-175)
  • White Sox -1.5 (+145)

Moneyline

  • Twins +113
  • White Sox -123

Total

  • 8.5 (Over -140 / Under +120)

Twins vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Michael Kopech has not been the same pitcher that he was a year ago, but you have to dig into the numbers to see that. His ERA sits at 2.78 which is better than his 3.50 from a year ago, but that does not tell the whole story. His Fielding Independent Pitching is 3.67 this year compared to 2.97 last year, but it is his stuff that does not seem to be as good. A year ago, Kopech was striking out 13.4 batters per nine innings with a fastball that averaged 97.3 MPH and had a whiff rate of 31.7%. His slider also had a whiff rate of 36.0%, this year it is down to 19.1%. His fastball is down too from 31.7% to 26.4% and his average velocity is just 95.1. Kopech is only striking out 8.3 per nine. 

All of these numbers indicate to me that serious regression is coming to Kopech’s ERA. There is a reason he is only 2-5, and I think things are going to get worse in that department despite it seeming to be a good season on the mound when you just look at the basic numbers. 

Chris Archer is going for Minnesota amidst a career revival with a 3.08 ERA and will give the Twins every chance to get the win against Kopech and Chicago. 

Pick: Twins ML +113

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