Tyron Smith Injury Hurts Ezekiel Elliott More Than Cowboys' Season-Long Outlook
Just days before the 2022 NFL season kicks off, the Cowboys received devastating news today. Right tackle Tyron Smith tore his hamstring – so badly that it came off the bone – and will be out until at least December.
Cowboys’ LT Tyron Smith’s hamstring tore and came off the bone, per sources. He could have surgery as early as today, pending meeting with doctors. He is out indefinitely, and is unlikely to return before December. https://t.co/t5HPYHB1D9
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 25, 2022
That’s not news they, or their fans, wanted to hear. However, all hope for a successful season shouldn’t be lost. While Smith is a big loss and hurts their offensive line, Dallas has found ways to weather the storm without Smith before. Over the last five seasons, the Cowboys are 22-17 with Smith on the field. Without him, they are 14-12. That’s a difference in win percentage of .026.
Dallas has found ways to continue to be itself – even it average is the identity – without Smith, so bettors shouldn’t be worried about too much of a drop off from the team at large.
What they should be cognizant of is that Ezekiel Elliott’s production drops noticeably when Smith is not in the lineup.
Ezekiel Elliott's Stats Without Tyron Smith Are Concerning
Elliott w/Smith:
- 19 carries per game
- 4.6 YPC
- 88.4 YPG
Elliott w/o Smith:
- 17.5 carries
- 4.2 YPC
- 73.9 YPG
These numbers indicate two things. First – especially with an aging Elliott – the UNDER on Elliott’s rushing yard props might be the way to go for a majority of the season. Secondly, Dak Prescott’s OVER is now a major play to consider. If the Cowboys have to compensate for Elliott’s lack of production with Prescott’s arm, expect a lot of yards to come from the air rather than on the ground.
Dallas’ overall season shouldn’t take a hit, but the offense has to managed game-to-game by bettors now.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.