U.S. Open: The Countdown to the Winner at Pinehurst
By Todd Moser
All signs point to Scottie Scheffler winning the prestigious U.S. Open this week. I think you can count on one hand the players who realistically have a shot at this week’s major at Pinehurst. Let’s start from the back and work our way to our predicted winner.
All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook
The U.S. Open at Pinehurst Power Rankings: Countdown to the Winner
156-141. Amateurs
Don’t get me wrong, this field of amateurs is extremely talented and includes the NCAA individual champion and several NCAA All-Americans. I like Gordon Sargent out of Vanderbilt and Luke Clanton out of FSU the best and hope they can make the cut.
140-74. Qualifiers and others
67 players survived all of the local, sectional, and final qualifiers held across the country, and there ARE some familiar PGA Tour names in this group including Hubbard, Svensson, D Thompson, Rai, Kuchar, Berger, W Simpson, Power, Todd, Hossler, C Davis, Molinari, and A Scott. However, other than Scott, I think we can safely eliminate this group.
73-62. LIV
Now that John Rahm has withdrawn, twelve LIV players are in the field. Other than Bryson DeChambeau, this group has not shown up in majors this year. I don’t think 54-hole scrambles wearing shorts, and blaring music help players prepare appropriately for major championships. I backed Brooks Koepka for The Masters and PGA, but he looked nothing like the pre-LIV player he once was.
61. Tiger Woods
Tiger would never admit it, but I think making the cut and finishing the tournament would be a win for him this week.
60-35. The Mid-Pack
The below names are perennial contenders each week on tour, but I don’t think they will handle this truly difficult course and major tournament pressure. The familiar names include Bezuidenhout, Detry, Dunlap, Eckroat, English, Fox, Glover, Grillo, Hadwin, Henley, Hoge, Hojgaard, Hughes, Jaeger, SW Kim, Kirk, Kitayama, Knapp, McCarthy, Noren, Pavon, Perez, Poston, Power, Taylor, Van Rooyen, and Woodland.
34-30. Stars not in form
2024 has not been their year. Perhaps they will find their respective games, but I don’t think you can find them during U.S. Open week. Apologies to Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, and Rickie Fowler.
29-8. Just on the outside looking in
Although I don’t think either will win, I would give them a puncher’s chance. They include Matt Fitzpatrick, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Will Zalatoris, Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im, Ben An, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Brian Harman, Windham Clark, Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry, Akshay Bhatia, Jason Day, Robert MacIntyre, Justin Rose, Sahith Theegala, and Billy Horschel.
7. Ludvig Aberg +2000
Aberg has all the physical tools, but I think more importantly, he has the mental game to survive the U.S. Open pressure. The only thing he doesn’t have is a lot of major tournament experience. But he did prove he could handle the pressure finishing second at The Masters.
6. Bryson DeChambeau +2000
As mentioned earlier, I’m not a fan of LIV; however, you have to give BDC a shot. He’s only one of four players to have Top 10 finishes in this year’s majors. He’s won the U.S. Open before and has shown he still has the game to contend.
5. Viktor Hovland +2000
Since Hovland got back together with his old coach, he’s finished third at The PGA and T-15 at The Memorial. He’s back to showing the form that won him The FedEx Cup last year. The big question for him this week will be his scrambling. Pinehurst’s domed greens will bring out the best of scramblers this week. The problem for Hovland is that he’s currently ranked 150th in scrambling. If he can find his old form, he’ll be near the top of the leaderboard.
4. Rory McIlroy +1200
For Rory, it’s all mental. I think he puts too much pressure on himself when he gets into contention. He ranks 81st in final round scoring average which I think will be his undoing this week.
3. Collin Morikawa +1400
Morikawa has been knocking on the door recently. His worst finish in his last six starts is a T-16 at Wells Fargo. In his last three starts he finished T-4 at the PGA, fourth at Colonial, and second at The Memorial. Like Rory, the final round is holding him back. He ranks 126th in final round scoring average. If he can overcome that, we may be looking at the winner.
2. Xander Schauffele +1100
Schauffele “X-orcized” the ghosts of not winning a major with his PGA triumph. In his first tournament after the PGA, he finished T-8 at Memorial so he’s still on form. I think he’s ready for another showdown with Scottie Scheffler.
1. Scottie Scheffler +300
Frankly, I’d be surprised if Scheffler did not win this week. Of all the 156 players in the field this week, he has the best mental game, and in the U.S. Open week, that to me is the difference maker. I think he outlasts the field and the course to be your winner.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.