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UAB vs. Western Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 8

By Reed Wallach

Oct 16, 2021; Hattiesburg, Mississippi, USA; UAB Blazers quarterback Dylan Hopkins (9) throws in the
Oct 16, 2021; Hattiesburg, Mississippi, USA; UAB Blazers quarterback Dylan Hopkins (9) throws in the / Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
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Two Conference USA contenders take stage on Friday night in hopes of notching a signature victory.

UAB and Western Kentucky each enter this pivotal matchup with one loss in conference play, trailing both UTSA and North Texas, who are undefeated. The Blazers bolster one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country but must slow down A.J. Reed and the Hilltoppers' air raid offense.

Who will prevail in this primetime clash? Let's check out the odds and find out:

UAB vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

UAB vs. Western Kentucky Betting Trends

  • Western Kentucky is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • UAB is an underdog for the first time this season
  • UAB is 0-2 ATS on the road this season

UAB vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Pick

I'm still not sold on this Western Kentucky bunch, who is 4-3 on the season, but has beaten up on lesser competition while struggling vs. quality opponents. The team blew the doors off the likes of Austin Peay (an FCS team), Hawai'i (one of the worst FBS teams) FIU (arguably the worst FBS team) and won on the road against Middle Tennessee (a middling conference foe).

The team dropped an overtime game to Indiana, at home to Sun Belt contender Troy, and reigning CUSA champion UTSA.

Now, they get a UAB team that has lost two games by a combined 11 points and won three games against FBS foes by a combined 55 points. The Blazers should be able to hold the edge on the ground with one of the most lethal rushing attacks in the country, averaging nearly six yards per play (10th in the country) and also rank fourth in explosive rush rate. I grade UAB closer to the UTSA's of the conference than Middle Tennessee.

Meanwhile, UAB has faced pass-heavy offenses already this season such as Georgia Southern and Charlotte and contained them quite well. The team is 11th nationally in EPA/Pass and 42nd in success rate allowed. Western Kentucky throws the ball at the ninth highest rate in the country and can be in trouble against this stout UAB defense that is 13th in yards per play allowed.

I'm going to wait and see if a +3 appears on the Blazers, but I'm comfortable playing this game down to pick. I make the Blazers a small favorite in the game when you adjust for strength of schedule.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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