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UCF vs. BYU Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Big 12 Championship Second Round (Can Knights Keep it Close?)

By Reed Wallach

Mar 9, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; UCF Knights guard Darius Johnson (3) controls the ball during
Mar 9, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; UCF Knights guard Darius Johnson (3) controls the ball during / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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UCF took the first game of the Big 12 Tournament by knocking off Oklahoma State with relative ease, and now the team will look to continue its fine form against BYU, a team it has given trouble twice this season.

Two Big 12 newcomers tip off second-round action in Kansas City on Tuesday in Big 12 Tournament action when UCF and BYU square off. Both teams finished the regular season in fine form, who can carry it over into postseason success?

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UCF vs. BYU Odds, Spread and Total

BYU vs. UCF Betting Trends

  • UCF is 10-5 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • BYU is 19-12 ATS this season
  • BYU is 17-7 ATS as a favorite this season

UCF vs. BYU How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, March 13th
  • Game Time: 12:30 PM EST
  • Venue: T-Mobile Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • UCF: 16-14
  • BYU: 22-9

UCF vs. BYU Key Players to Watch

UCF

Darius Johnson: Off a 33-point outing on Saturday in a road upset against TCU, Johnson drained three threes in the double-digit win against Oklahoma State in the first round. Now, he’ll look to keep the Knights Big 12 Tournament run alive against an elite BYU offense. 

BYU

Jaxon Robinson: This is a well-rounded BYU team, but Robinson is the consistent threat on this team’s elite offense, able to handle the relentless ball pressure from UCF with an ability to get to the free throw line. Robinson poured in 21 points in the team’s two-point win at home against UCF after playing a minimal role in the team’s road win back on January 13th against the Knights. 

UCF vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

UCF may have turned a corner down the stretch of the season, a testament to the depth of the best conference in college basketball this season. The Knights, despite being 7-11 in league play, have won four of its final six games, two of which came against the top 33 teams in the country according to KenPom, and its only losses against the top two teams in the conference in Iowa State and Houston. 

The team has been a thorn in the side of BYU this season, refusing to go quietly on the road, losing by two as double digit underdogs, and taking them the full 40 minutes in a five-point loss at home back on January 13th. 

While BYU has also improved as league play has continued in its first season in the Big 12, the teams that have given the Cougars the most trouble are teams that pressure the ball at a high level. 

BYU’s turnover rate has climbed in Big 12 play and the team’s inability to get into the teeth of the UCF defense, which plays an aggressive trapping offense, may have the team playing from behind early against the seasoned legs of UCF. 

The Cougars have the ability to win with margin if the team’s most perimeter-oriented offense is on from distance, but I’m going to trust the UCF defense to keep trending up down the stretch of the season and keep this close. BYU also has the third-highest opponent free throw rate in the conference, an avenue to success for the sometimes limited Knights offense. 

Take the points in the early session in Kansas City. 

PICK: UCF +5.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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