UCF vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Odds and Spread for College Football Week 7
By Reed Wallach
The Cincinnati Bearcats continue on their journey to be the first Group of Five to make the College Football Playoff.
The No. 3 Bearcats will host Central Florida on Saturday afternoon in what was projected as one of their stiffest tests of the season in AAC play, but the team enters without quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who is out for the year.
How should we handicap this matchup? First, let’s look at the opening odds at WynnBET Sportsbook.
UCF vs. Cincinnati Odds
Spread
UCF: +18.5 (-1100
Cincinnati: -18.5 (-110)
Moneyline
UCF: +600
Cincinnati: -1000
Total: 56.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
UCF vs. Cincinnati Betting Trends
- Under Luck Fickell, Cincinnati is 13-11 ATS as a home favorite
- Cincinnati is 10-7 ATS since 2019 in AAC play
- Cincinnati is 22-32 to the UNDER since Fickell took over
UCF vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick
The line is high, but I still don’t believe that the market is adjusting for UCF’s struggles since the team lost Gabriel. The team squandered a double digit fourth quarter lead to Navy in a loss, and then needed a late touchdown to get past UCF at home, failing to cover as 10-point favorites.
Replacement Mikey Keene has not looked comfortable just yet under center for the Golden Knights, and he will have his hands full with the Cincinnati defense that is top 10 in defensive success rate and turnovers gained. Keene has passed for 372 yards in his two games as the starter.
Not to mention, Gus Malzahn’s team has been without starting running back Isaiah Bowser and Jaylon Robinson. He deemed the two “week-to-week” so their status is up in the air heading into this game, but there can be even less weapons on the Golden Knights offense.
The UCF defense is going to need to force some turnovers and plays in the backfield if they want to stay within this spread, but that will be tough sledding against a Cincy offense that has a veteran offensive line and is top 40 in success rate.
UCF had four sacks last week against ECU, but only had two in the four games prior. The Bearcats do a good job of keeping quarterback Desmond Ridder upright, and he has been able to push the ball down field, averaging nearly nine yards per attempt.
The Bearcats defense is stifling and the team should have no issue pushing down the field and putting up a high point total, not to mention some style points for the College Football Playoff Committee. I’d play this at anything under three touchdowns.
Pick: Cincinnati -18.5
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