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UCF vs. FAU Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 3

By Reed Wallach

Sep 9, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee (10) hands off to UCF
Sep 9, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee (10) hands off to UCF / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
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A pair of Florida teams do battle on Saturday night in Boca Raton.

UCF is coming off of a disheartening Friday night loss at home to Louisville, getting shut out in the second half, but will turn their attention to a in-state foe in Florida Atlantic, who has been very explosive so far this season, scoring 38 in all three games this season.

With a pair of explosive quarterbacks at the helm in John Rhys Plumlee and N'Kosi Perry, is there value on the side or total?

Let's check out the odds and share our best bet:

 

UCF vs. Florida Atlantic Odds, Spread and Total

UCF vs. Florida Atlantic Betting Trends

  • UCF is 14-17-2 to the OVER since 2012 in non conference games
  • Florida Atlantic is 2-9 to the OVER under Willie Taggart
  • Willie Taggart is 4-6 against the spread (ATS) at home with Florida Atlantic

UCF vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction and Pick

I mentioned this on 'The Early Reed' on Tuesday as the total was ticking up in real time, but I still show value on the number between a pair of explosive offenses.

Both teams are playing in the top half of the country in plays per minute and Florida Atlantic has been an over team all season. They allowed Ohio to hang 40 on them and would've gone over in Week 1 against Charlotte if quarterback Chris Reynolds didn't leave with injury (the Owls scored 43 on their own).

Meanwhile, UCF looked strong in the first half against Louisville, but fell apart in the second half, failing to score. However, JRP and the offense had plenty of opportunities in that one, crossing the Louisville 40 five times in the game. The team converted four of 16 third downs, but should find more success against an FAU team that was gashed by Ohio.

The Bobcats had a 50% success rate and averaged over 9 yards per dropback. While Plumlee may not be a traditional pocket passer, he is capable of creating chunk plays with his arm and legs and in an up tempo matchup, I expect plenty of scoring chances.

This number steamed up early in the week, but I expect both teams to clear 30 points with the projected pace and both quarterbacks ability to create chunk plays.

In case you missed it, The Early Reed is in podcast form! Check out the Week 3 episode with Connor O'Gara from Saturday Down South!

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