UCF vs. Houston Prediction and Odds (Bet Houston to Win Big at Home)

Feb 9, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) controls the ball against
Feb 9, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) controls the ball against / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Houston is still the class of the AAC, but they have ben put on notice over the past week, losing a pair of games to SMU and Memphis. Can they rally around their minor skid to finish the regular season strong?

They face a test at home against UCF, who has shown flashes this season but ultimately are a class below the Cougars. Will they cover the double digit spread?

Here are the odds for Thursday's AAC matchup from WynnBET Sportsbook:

UCF vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total


  • UCF: +13.5 (-110)
  • Houston: -13.5 (-110)


  • UCF: +650
  • Houston: -1000

Total: 136 (Over -110/Under -110)

UCF vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

Houston will give UCF what they want on offense: the three-point shot.

The Cougars defense is built to shut off the interior (top ten in two-point defense) by allowing the 24th highest three-point rate this season, but defend it super well, holding foes below 30% from deep. The Knights are top 70 in three-point rate, but struggle to protect the ball at all, placing outside the top 270 in the country.

They are sure to struggle with Houston's high ball pressure defense that is forcing turnovers at a near 20% clip in AAC play. Sure, UCF can hit a few three's, but it won't be efficient offense as Houston takes advantage of their opponents middling defense at the rim. UCF is allowing a middle of the pack field goal percentage while the Cougars are top 10 in finishing around the rim and have the best offensive rebounding rate in the AAC.

I expect we see a motivated Houston team that wants to take out their frustrations on their opponent, so I see them covering this double digit spread with relative ease.

LEAN: Houston -13.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 65-58-3 for +4.2 units.