UCF vs. Memphis Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 10

The No. 25 UCF Knights worked their way into the CFP Top 25 with a win over Cincinnati last week, potentially reestablishing themselves as the Group of Five top dog. Of course there is still a matchup with No. 19 Tulane looming, but for now, UCF is 6-2 heading into Memphis. 

The Memphis Tigers were just dropped, 38-28 by the aforementioned Tulane Green Wave, and now sit at 4-4. This is the biggest game remaining on the schedule for the Tigers and their last chance to truly make noise in the AAC.

Let’s check out the odds and see if Vegas might hint at a potential upset.

UCF vs. Memphis Odds, Spread and Total

Memphis and UCF Betting Trends

• Memphis is 3-5 ATS
• UCF is 5-3 ATS
• The Over is 7-1 in Memphis games
• The Under is 6-2 in UCF games
• The Over is 5-0 in UCF’s last five games on field turf
• Home team is 11-0 ATS in last 11 meetings

UCF vs. Memphis Prediction and Pick

The home team has dominated this rivalry, at least from a gambling perspective, going 11-0 against the spread in the last 11 meetings. That is a very serious sample size that dates back to when I was in fifth grade.

I really like John Rhys Plumlee and this UCF team. However, he sustained a concussion in the first half vs. Cincinnati. Mikey Keene was able to lead the Knights on two fourth quarter scoring drives to win that game 25-21, but I would feel better about UCF if I knew Rhys Plumlee would be healthy. 

Keene started 10 games and won seven of them as a true freshman when Dillon Gabriel sustained a broken collarbone while he was still at UCF. So, he has a track record of success in the AAC. Keene went 15-for-21 for 176 yards, but only ran the ball one time for nine yards. That would be the dynamic lost if Rhys Plumlee is out. He leads the team in passing and rushing yards this season. UCF is fifth in total offense, but is the only team in the top eight of total yards per game to average under 40 points, 35.8. Memphis is 97th in total defense. 

Last time we saw UCF in a trap spot they lost to East Carolina two weeks ago. They were clearly looking ahead to the matchup with Cincinnati. Now, they are coming off that big win with Tulane on the schedule next weekend. This could be another bad spot for the Knights especially if they start a backup quarterback.

I am worried that they could fall flat, but Memphis is constantly playing shootouts, the over has cashed in seven of their eight games. As a result, give me the over this week. 

Pick: Over 58.5 (-110)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.