UCF vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 8
By Josh Yourish
The bye week was well deserved for the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners after knocking off Texas in the Week 6 Red River Rivalry. Dillon Gabriel was the hero and now the Sooners have the inside track to the Big 12 title in their final season in the conference, not to mention a great shot at the College Football Playoff.
The UCF Knights needed their Week 7 bye for a different reason. In Week 6 they were bludgeoned by Kansas, 51-22 to fall to 3-3 and 0-3 in the Big 12. It’s Week 8 and the Knights are still searching for their first Big 12 victory, it would be massive if it came against undefeated Oklahoma.
For a Week 8 look around the country check out BetSided college football betting expert Reed Wallach’s weekly column and preview.
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UCF vs. Oklahoma Odds, Spread and Total
Oklahoma and UCF Betting Trends
- Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS
- The OVER is 4-2 in Oklahoma games
- UCF is 2-4 ATS
- The OVER is 5-1 in UCF games
UCF vs. Oklahoma How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 21
- Time: 12:00 PM EST
- Venue: Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): ABC
- UCF Record: 3-3
- Oklahoma Record: 6-0
UCF vs. Oklahoma Key Players to Watch
UCF
RJ Harvey, RB: Harvey leads the Knights in rushing with 511 yards on 89 carries for an average of 5.7 yards a carry. He’s scored six touchdowns including one in the final game before a bye week. Harvey was one of the few bright spots in that game, rushing for 133 yards and a score on 16 carries. He has also caught eight passes for 172 yards and two more touchdowns on the season.
Oklahoma
Dillon Gabriel, QB: It has to be Gabriel after his performance in the Red River Rivalry. He not only led the Sooners on a game-winning TD drive, but he also threw for 285 yards and that final touchdown on 23-38 passing, and led the team in rushing with 113 yards and another TD on 14 carries.
UCF vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
The Oklahoma Sooners are a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season and even dating back to their bowl game last year have covered in seven straight contests. However, this could be a tough one for Brent Venables' team.
The schedule plays a part in that because the Sooners couldn’t be riding higher after their win over Texas, even with the bye last week. There’s also a pretty good chance that they are looking past a team that is 0-3 in conference games in their first season in the Big 12. The UCF offense also plays a part though. The Knights are fourth in total yards per game and sixth in yards per play, gaining 7.5. Somehow, they rank just 26th in points per game, averaging 35.0.
UCF’s offense is actually better than Oklahoma’s by those two metrics. The Sooners are sixth in total yards and 22nd in yards per play. Defensively Oklahoma is much better than UCF, ranking 53rd in total defense and 32nd in yards per play, compared to 81st and 78th. Still, it is surprising that Oklahoma is eighth in scoring defense.
The Sooners have gotten lucky, giving up so many yards and so few points, so I expect some defensive regression in the second half of the year. OU is third in opponent scoring percentage in the red zone at 63.64% which is impressive, but also likely unsustainable. Last year, the Sooners were 89th in that stat at 86.21% and the best in the country was 64.10%.
With a bit of regression likely coming for the Sooners defense and facing a great offense like UCF’s, I expect the Knights to be able to cover a nearly 20-point spread.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change