Betsided

UCF vs. South Florida Prediction and Odds for College Football Week 13 (Knights Overwhelm Shorthanded Bulls)

By Reed Wallach

Nov 19, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights running back Isaiah Bowser (5) runs the ball during
Nov 19, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights running back Isaiah Bowser (5) runs the ball during / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

UCF scored their most impressive win of the season at Tulane two weeks ago, but followed it up with an outright loss as three possession favorites against Navy at home.

While the team still has a likely path to the AAC Championship game, it got far more difficult and the first step is to get a win at home against 1-10 USF who is onto a freshman quarterback and down several key contributors on both side of the ball.

It's been a dire season for the Bulls, who will be in the market for a new head coach this offseason, can they finish it on a high note?

Here are the odds:

UCF vs. South Florida Odds, Spread and Total

UCF vs. South Florida Betting Trends

  • UCF is 7-4 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • South Florida hasn't covered at home this season
  • South Florida has gone OVER in eight of 11 games
  • UCF has gone UNDER in seven of 10 games as a favorite

UCF vs. South Florida Prediction and Pick

It was a valiant effort from USF last Friday with a freshman quarterback Byrum Brown in his first career start, combining for 300 total yards and five touchdowns while completing his first 20 passes.

However, the UCF defense is far better than Tulsa's and I believe they will lock down Brown. The Bulls ran a ton of trick plays to get the ball downfield in a 48-42 game, but the Knights are going to see that on tape.

The Knights defense is allowing less than two points per drive and is top 15 in the country in line yards. While South Florida is a decent running team for their record, top 15 in line yards themselves, the team is banged up on the offensive line and will run into a buzzsaw on the other end in the Knights offense.

Whether it is John Rhys Plumlee or Mikey Keene at quarterback for Gus Malzahn's bunch, the Knights will be able to urn wild against arguably the worst rush defense in the country, last in EPA/Rush and 123rd in success rate. Further, the team is last in success rate against the pass.

It's a big number for the Knights to cover, but I believe that the Bulls come back to Earth offensively and the Knights pull away and win this one with ease. If this is too rich for you, the UCF team total is a decent look when this becomes available.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Home/NCAAF Picks