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UCLA vs. Arizona Prediction and Odds (Back Wildcats at Home)

By Reed Wallach

Jan 29, 2022; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Bennedict Mathurin (0) against the
Jan 29, 2022; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Bennedict Mathurin (0) against the / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
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The marquee matchup of Thursday's college basketball slate goes down in the desert with UCLA traveling to face Arizona in Tucson.

The Bruins blew out the Wildcats in front of a frenzied Pauley Pavilion crowd on January 25th, but was the 75-59 victory a true indicator of the difference between the two teams?

We'll dive into that but first let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

UCLA vs. Arizona Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • UCLA +6.5 (-110)
  • Arizona -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • UCLA +230
  • Arizona -290

Total: 148.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

UCLA vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick

Let's go back to the last game between these two, which Arizona closed as 2.5-point road favorites. The Wildcats, who bolster a top 15 offensive efficiency rating per KenPom, shot 34% on two-point shots and 25% from beyond the arc. With that in mind, the team did grab 21 offensive rebounds and dominated inside against the Bruins.

ShotQuality graded this win as a three-point win for Zona, so the scoreboard may not be indicative of the actual play on the court.

There were external factors playing into the Bruins favor, including the first home game at Pauley Pavilion this season with fans that made it difficult for starting point guard Kerr Krissa to run the Wildcats' offense. Krissa didn't score in 35 minutes, including a putrid 0/9 performance from the three-point line.

UCLA has been without Johnny Juzang for the past few games due to COVID-19 Protocols, but should be back for this one. It's fair to question how coach Mick Cronin will handle his minutes considering it's his first game back.

Overall, the Wildcats length inside is too much for the Bruins to handle. Tommy Lloyd's team is posting the best two-point defense in the country and are an elite ball handling unit (top five in the country). I believe the first game was a bit of an outlier and this line shows that oddsmakers aren't falling for it, installing Arizona as considerable favorites.

I expect a motivated home team on Thursday night and they exact some revenge on the Bruins. I'll lay the points with the home favorite.

PICK: Arizona -6.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 41-37-3 for +1.48 units.

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