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UConn vs. Creighton Prediction and Odds (Shots will Fall in Omaha for Both Sides)

By Ben Heisler

UConn and Creighton match up for the second time this season after the Huskies fell at home to the Bluejays 59-55 back on February 1st.
UConn and Creighton match up for the second time this season after the Huskies fell at home to the Bluejays 59-55 back on February 1st. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
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The UConn Huskies have won five straight games heading into the final week of the regular season, and look to exact revenge against a Creighton Bluejays team on Senior Night that got smacked in a 20-point blowout to Providence in their previous Friday matchup.

A win for Creighton would be massive, as they'd overtake UConn in the Big East standings based on their earlier season win and potentially move up multiple seeds in the upcoming conference tournament.

If the Huskies take care of business on the road, they're assuredly a top three seed.

Here are the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

UConn vs. Creighton Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • UConn -4.5 (-110)
  • Creighton +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • UConn -185
  • Creighton +152

Total:

  • 136 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

UConn vs. Creighton Prediction and Pick

Dan Hurley's squad are living their best life at the most opportune time of the season; winning five straight and keeping their slim chances alive of passing up Villanova to be the No. 2 seed.

However, despite their impressive win streak in a tough conference, they have not been good covering the spread, going just 1-4 ATS during their five consecutive victories.

I think the Bluejays, even at home, have a lot of flaws, which has led me to back away from either team vs. the number and focus on the total instead.

At first glance, the Huskies appear to be very defensive oriented; and that's true. Via CBB Analytics, they rank in the 86th percentile for defense rating (96.6) and come in 33rd in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency.

However, UConn can score too. They have the 24th most efficient offense in college basketball, and in their last five games, they've been on fire from 3-point range, hitting at almost a 40% clip and ranking in the 99th percentile of all teams.

To those who say it's not sustainable (and you'd be correct), UConn has averaged 36% from 3 this season, so to be up 4.6% over a five game sample isn't out of the question either. Creighton may be having a down year offensively compared to their sharp-shooting teams of the past, but they continue to play fast (92nd percentile in pace) over their last several games and have been outstanding in the paint; shooting 61.4% in the paint, and 92.6% on fast break opportunities.

I expect a more frenetic pace to this game than the overall season-long metrics would indicate, giving the edge to the over in their Round 2 matchup.

LEAN: OVER 136 (-110)

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