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UConn vs. N.C. State Prediction and Odds (Back Value on Wolfpack in 'Road Game')

By Ben Heisler

NC State Wolfpack center Elissa Cunane will look to upset the No. 2 seeded UConn Huskies in Bridgeport, CT as 4.5-point underdogs.
NC State Wolfpack center Elissa Cunane will look to upset the No. 2 seeded UConn Huskies in Bridgeport, CT as 4.5-point underdogs. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
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It may not technically be a home game for the No. 2 seeded Connecticut Huskies, but playing an Elite Eight game against the No. 1 seed N.C. State Wolfpack down the road in Bridgeport, Conn. certainly make feel like one.

N.C. State comes off its toughest test of the tournament in a 66-63 win in the Sweet 16 against Notre Dame. The Wolfpack struggled for most of the game, but closed out on a 7-0 run to take the victory over the 5-seed in the region.

Meanwhile, UConn, after going to the wire against UCF in the Round of 32 breezed past No. 3 Indiana 75-58 in the Sweet 16. The Huskies had four players in double figures, including Olivia Nelson-Ododa who had 10 points while also grabbing 14 boards.

Here are the latest consensus odds for the 7 p.m. EST Regional Final from Bridgeport.

UConn vs. N.C. State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • UConn -4.5 (-110)
  • NC State +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • UConn -210
  • NC State +170

Total:

  • 129.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

UConn vs. N.C. State Prediction and Pick

As tip gets closer, it wouldn't surprise me to see more of a late move towards the Huskies, but I like the Wolfpack at these odds, and fully expect them to battle until the very end and cover the 4.5 points.

Having to play UConn a short drive from campus was a rough draw for N.C. State. Regardless, it is now here and won't be intimidated by the matchup ahead.

The Wolfpack have a ton of older players on their roster, with a starting five that includes three grad students plus a senior and junior. They also got out of their own way by advancing to the Elite Eight after three straight seasons of failing to get past the Sweet 16.

As for how both teams match up, it's remarkably similar. Per HerHoopStats, N.C. State ranks second in overall rating, second in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating. UConn ranks fourth, ninth and second respectively. If there's a knock on the Wolfpack right now, it's their defense, which has fallen slightly over their last five games comparative to UConn, ranking in the 73rd percentile for defensive rating relative to 100th for the Huskies.

N.C. State got its rough outing out of the way against Notre Dame and are grateful to have survived in the tournament. Knowing what's at stake in a tough environment, I think the Wolfpack give everything they have in what should be a thrilling, defensive-oriented matchup.

PICK: N.C. State +4.5 (-110)

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